Hatayspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mersin Stadyumu plays host to Hatayspor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Friday 2 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hatayspor have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mersin Stadyumu, Hatayspor have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Mersin Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.00 for Fatih Karagümrük. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Hatayspor 1W, Fatih Karagümrük 2W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 39% versus Fatih Karagümrük 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 66% | Fatih Karagümrük 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.42 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.895 / defence 1.093 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.697 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.203. Data: 59 Hatayspor games / 59 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 47% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 22%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.55. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hatayspor are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Hatayspor 90% | Fatih Karagümrük 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 2 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 47% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Hatayspor 1.42 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.895 / def 1.093 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.697 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Fatih Karagümrük xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 2 February 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Hatayspor 3 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 47% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (5 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 2 | Fatih Karagümrük 2W.
What form are Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (0.90) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.70x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
47%
2.14
31%
3.23
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.34
0.92
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
5%
18.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Hatayspor and 0.92 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 11W 15D 33L from 59 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 19W 18D 22L across 59 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fatih Karagümrük by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hatayspor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 7W 10D 12L from 29 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 7W 9D 13L across 29 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hatayspor are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.73 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 11W 15D 33L in their last 59 games (0.81 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 19W 18D 22L in their last 59 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.07 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hatayspor won 3-0 on 12 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
2
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 6 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when Hatayspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 52%, Fatih Karagümrük 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Hatayspor and 59% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Hatayspor's games and 59% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Hatayspor's matches and 59% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Hatayspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 3-1 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.42 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.92 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hatayspor beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.70 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 47% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 22%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 66%, Fatih Karagümrük 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fatih Karagümrük arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Hatayspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.