Hatayspor 0-1 Bodrum FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Bodrum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hatayspor and Bodrum FK meet at Mersin Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Hatayspor (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hatayspor at Mersin Stadyumu this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Bodrum FK have collected 0.60 PPG across 5 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 0D 4L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Bodrum FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Hatayspor against 0.60 for Bodrum FK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Bodrum FK — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 60% versus Bodrum FK 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 60% | Bodrum FK 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.80 xG and Bodrum FK 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.846 / defence 1.150 | Bodrum FK attack 0.713 / defence 1.417. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.271. Bodrum FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.417 — this is suppressing Hatayspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Hatayspor games / 5 Bodrum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 54% | Draw 25% | Bodrum FK 21%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Bodrum FK 4.76. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hatayspor at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Hatayspor 50% | Bodrum FK 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Bodrum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 54% | Draw 25% | Bodrum FK 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Hatayspor 1.80 / Bodrum FK 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.846 / def 1.150 | Bodrum FK attack 0.713 / def 1.417 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bodrum FK xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Bodrum FK kick off?
Hatayspor vs Bodrum FK kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 20 September 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Bodrum FK?
Hatayspor 0 - 1 Bodrum FK.
Where is Hatayspor vs Bodrum FK being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Bodrum FK part of?
Hatayspor vs Bodrum FK is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 54% chance of winning, Bodrum FK a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hatayspor and Bodrum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Bodrum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Bodrum FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hatayspor and Bodrum FK in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Bodrum FK (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (0.85) and Bodrum FK's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bodrum FK's attack (0.71x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.96
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.84
1.04
Bodrum FK xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
3%
29.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Bodrum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.04 for Bodrum FK, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Bodrum FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 0W 2D 3L from 5 games, a 0.40 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bodrum FK, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 4L across 5 games — 0.60 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bodrum FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.40 PPG for Hatayspor against 0.60 for Bodrum FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hatayspor are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Bodrum FK are on 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hatayspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Early Season
Bodrum FK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Bodrum FK in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 games (0.40 PPG), while Bodrum FK have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hatayspor
0
Draws
2
Bodrum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Bodrum FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 0, Bodrum FK have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Bodrum FK last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Bodrum FK 1-0 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Bodrum FK?
Bodrum FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bodrum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 60%, Bodrum FK 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Hatayspor) and 40% (Bodrum FK).
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 40% of games; Bodrum FK in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Bodrum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Bodrum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 40% of Bodrum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hatayspor vs Bodrum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Hatayspor's recent games and 40% of Bodrum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Bodrum FK tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bodrum FK in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bodrum FK defy the odds to beat Hatayspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodrum FK beat Hatayspor 0-1 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.80 xG and Bodrum FK 1.04 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hatayspor fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Bodrum FK attack 0.71 / defence 1.42, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 54% | Draw 25% | Bodrum FK 21%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Bodrum FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 60%, Bodrum FK 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodrum FK's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 0.40 PPG, Bodrum FK 0.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bodrum FK win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Bodrum FK conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.