Hatayspor 5-0 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Hatayspor take on Alanyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hatayspor host Alanyaspor at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Hatayspor — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 1W 0D 1L from 2 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Alanyaspor's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Hatayspor's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 0.90 xG and Alanyaspor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.963 / defence 1.137 | Alanyaspor attack 0.835 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 0.902 / away 1.128. Data: 2 Hatayspor games / 2 Alanyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 27% | Draw 37% | Alanyaspor 36%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 3.70 | Draw 2.70 | Alanyaspor 2.78. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 27% | Draw 37% | Alanyaspor 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Hatayspor 0.90 / Alanyaspor 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.963 / def 1.137 | Alanyaspor attack 0.835 / def 1.040 | league avg home 0.902 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Alanyaspor xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor?
Hatayspor 5 - 0 Alanyaspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 27% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 36% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Hatayspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Alanyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hatayspor and Alanyaspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 0.96x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.66
37%
2.73
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
1.98
1.07
Alanyaspor xG
3.66
27%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
9%
10.70
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 14.9 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.07 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hatayspor come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 1D 1L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Hatayspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hatayspor have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Alanyaspor in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Early Season
Alanyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Hatayspor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hatayspor and Alanyaspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2022, when Alanyaspor won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Hatayspor
3
Draws
2
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Alanyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 3, Alanyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Hatayspor 1-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Alanyaspor?
Hatayspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Hatayspor's games and 50% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hatayspor's recent games and 50% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hatayspor run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Alanyaspor 5-0 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 0.90 xG and Alanyaspor 1.07 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Hatayspor beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alanyaspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.14 against Alanyaspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 27% | Draw 37% | Alanyaspor 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Hatayspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 50%, Alanyaspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Hatayspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hatayspor scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.