Hatayspor 1-0 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hatayspor host Alanyaspor at Mersin Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hatayspor — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's home record at Mersin Stadyumu: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Alanyaspor's 1.70 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Hatayspor's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Hatayspor have won 2, Alanyaspor 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hatayspor in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 60% versus Alanyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 50% | Alanyaspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.13 xG and Alanyaspor 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.796 / defence 1.238 | Alanyaspor attack 0.778 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.220. Hatayspor's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Hatayspor games / 60 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 33% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 36%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Alanyaspor 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hatayspor 80% | Alanyaspor 30%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 33% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Hatayspor 1.13 / Alanyaspor 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.796 / def 1.238 | Alanyaspor attack 0.778 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Alanyaspor xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor?
Hatayspor 1 - 0 Alanyaspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 33% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hatayspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (7 meetings): Hatayspor 2W | Draws 3 | Alanyaspor 2W.
What form are Hatayspor and Alanyaspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 0.80x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
33%
3.01
31%
3.20
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.30
1.17
Alanyaspor xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.17 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hatayspor come into this having played 60 games, going 10W 21D 29L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (19W 23D 18L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hatayspor's home form reads 8W 11D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.10 points per game from 30 outings (7W 12D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Hatayspor are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.30 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hatayspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 10W 21D 29L in their last 60 games (0.85 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 19W 23D 18L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.17 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hatayspor and Alanyaspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2022, when Alanyaspor won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Hatayspor
3
Draws
2
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Alanyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 3, Alanyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Hatayspor 1-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Alanyaspor?
Hatayspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 73%, Alanyaspor 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Hatayspor) and 37% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Hatayspor's games and 47% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Hatayspor's recent games and 37% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hatayspor defy the odds to beat Alanyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Alanyaspor 1-0 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.13 xG and Alanyaspor 1.17 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alanyaspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.80 / defence 1.24 against Alanyaspor attack 0.78 / defence 0.86, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 33% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 36%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Hatayspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 50%, Alanyaspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Hatayspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.