Giresunspor 0-1 Ümraniyespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Giresunspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Giresunspor vs Ümraniyespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Giresunspor host Ümraniyespor at Çotanak Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Giresunspor — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Giresunspor's home record at Çotanak Stadyumu: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ümraniyespor stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Ümraniyespor have posted 1W 3D 3L from 7 away outings — 0.86 PPG. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Giresunspor 1.20 PPG, Ümraniyespor 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Giresunspor trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ümraniyespor trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Giresunspor 56% and Ümraniyespor 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Giresunspor 50% | Ümraniyespor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 1.80 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.936 / defence 0.975 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.993 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.379. Ümraniyespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Giresunspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Giresunspor games / 16 Ümraniyespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 48% | Draw 24% | Ümraniyespor 28%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Ümraniyespor 3.57. Giresunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Giresunspor as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Giresunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Giresunspor 50% | Ümraniyespor 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Ümraniyespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 48% | Draw 24% | Ümraniyespor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Giresunspor 1.80 / Ümraniyespor 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 0.936 / def 0.975 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.993 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Giresunspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Ümraniyespor xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Ümraniyespor kick off?
Giresunspor vs Ümraniyespor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 8 January 2023 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Giresunspor 0 - 1 Ümraniyespor.
Where is Giresunspor vs Ümraniyespor being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Ümraniyespor part of?
Giresunspor vs Ümraniyespor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 48% chance of winning, Ümraniyespor a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Giresunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Giresunspor and Ümraniyespor will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Ümraniyespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Ümraniyespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Giresunspor and Ümraniyespor in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Ümraniyespor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Giresunspor's attack rating (0.94) and Ümraniyespor's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ümraniyespor's attack versus Giresunspor's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Giresunspor Win
48%
2.10
24%
4.08
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
3.14
1.34
Ümraniyespor xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
5%
21.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Ümraniyespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Giresunspor and 1.34 for Ümraniyespor, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Giresunspor come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 4D 7L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ümraniyespor sit at 0.69 PPG from 16 outings (2W 5D 9L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Ümraniyespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Giresunspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Ümraniyespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Giresunspor's home form reads 3W 1D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Ümraniyespor have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Giresunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Giresunspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Ümraniyespor are on 1.25 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ümraniyespor in 69%.
Last 16 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Blended
Ümraniyespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Ümraniyespor in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Ümraniyespor have gone 2W 5D 9L in their last 16 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Ümraniyespor away?
Giresunspor's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 1.43 PPG; Ümraniyespor away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Giresunspor
0
Draws
1
Ümraniyespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Ümraniyespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 1, Ümraniyespor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Ümraniyespor last play each other?
They last met on 3 June 2023, when Ümraniyespor 0-1 Giresunspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Giresunspor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Giresunspor 57%, Ümraniyespor 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Giresunspor) and 57% (Ümraniyespor).
On the defensive side: Giresunspor have failed to score in 29% of games; Ümraniyespor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Ümraniyespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Ümraniyespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Giresunspor's games and 71% of Ümraniyespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Giresunspor vs Ümraniyespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Giresunspor's recent games and 57% of Ümraniyespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Giresunspor and Ümraniyespor tend to score early?
Giresunspor have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Ümraniyespor in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ümraniyespor defy the odds to beat Giresunspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ümraniyespor beat Giresunspor 0-1 at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 1.80 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.34 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Giresunspor fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Ümraniyespor attack 0.99 / defence 1.20, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 48% | Draw 24% | Ümraniyespor 28%, with Giresunspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Ümraniyespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 50%, Ümraniyespor 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Giresunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with Ümraniyespor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Giresunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.