Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Konyaspor meet at Eryaman Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 2D 5L from 9 games (0.89 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gençlerbirliği S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s form when playing at home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 games at Eryaman Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Konyaspor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.89 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Gençlerbirliği S.K. — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gençlerbirliği S.K. 67% and Konyaspor 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 56% | Konyaspor 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.17 xG and Konyaspor 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.841 / defence 1.207 | Konyaspor attack 1.087 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.307. Data: 9 Gençlerbirliği S.K. games / 45 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 24% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 48%. Fair-value odds: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Konyaspor 2.08. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 50% | Konyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Eryaman Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 24% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.17 / Konyaspor 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.841 / def 1.207 | Konyaspor attack 1.087 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Gençlerbirliği S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Konyaspor xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Konyaspor kick off?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Konyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Eryaman Stadium.
What was the final score in Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Konyaspor?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadium.
What competition is Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Konyaspor part of?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Gençlerbirliği S.K. a 24% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Konyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Konyaspor in?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack rating (0.84) and Konyaspor's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.09x) against Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 9/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
24%
4.22
28%
3.53
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Gençlerbirliği S.K. xG
Total xG
2.88
1.72
Konyaspor xG
4.22
24%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
18%
5.56
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
4%
23.43
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. and 1.72 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 2W 2D 5L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gençlerbirliği S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 3W 2D 4L from 9 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Gençlerbirliği S.K. against 1.22 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Gençlerbirliği S.K. are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.67 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gençlerbirliği S.K. have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Konyaspor in 78%.
Last 9 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home or Konyaspor away?
Konyaspor's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home: 1.00 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
0
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Konyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have won 0, Konyaspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Konyaspor 1-0 Gençlerbirliği S.K..
Who has won more matches between Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gençlerbirliği S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 100% for Konyaspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gençlerbirliği S.K.) and 50% (Konyaspor).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gençlerbirliği S.K. home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gençlerbirliği S.K. play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s games and 100% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s recent games and 50% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-2 at Eryaman Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.17 xG and Konyaspor 1.72 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.84 / defence 1.21 against Konyaspor attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 9/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gençlerbirliği S.K. 24% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 48%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 56%, Konyaspor 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.89 PPG, Konyaspor 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.