Gaziantep FK 3-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Gaziantep Stadyumu to face Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gaziantep FK have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK at Gaziantep Stadyumu this season: 4W 2D 0L from 6 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gaziantep Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Gaziantep Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor away from home this season: 2W 3D 1L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Konyaspor are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Gaziantep FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 38% versus Konyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 38% | Konyaspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.25 xG and Konyaspor 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 1.112 / defence 0.871 | Konyaspor attack 0.846 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.104. Data: 13 Gaziantep FK games / 13 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 46% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Konyaspor 4.17. Gaziantep FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gaziantep FK at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Konyaspor (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 33% | Konyaspor 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 46% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.25 / Konyaspor 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 1.112 / def 0.871 | Konyaspor attack 0.846 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Konyaspor xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Gaziantep FK 3 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 46% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (1.11) and Konyaspor's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.85x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
46%
2.16
30%
3.34
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.07
0.81
Konyaspor xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
7%
14.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 0.81 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gaziantep FK come into this having played 13 games, going 4W 3D 6L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 2.00 PPG from 13 outings (7W 5D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Gaziantep FK's home form reads 4W 2D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.50 points per game from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Konyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.62 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 7W 5D 1L in their last 13 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Konyaspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 2.33 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 4-1 on 17 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gaziantep FK
2
Draws
5
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 3, Konyaspor have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gaziantep FK see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Gaziantep FK) and 33% (Konyaspor) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Gaziantep FK and 17% for Konyaspor.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Konyaspor in 50%; Konyaspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 33% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 17% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Gaziantep FK edge out Konyaspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Konyaspor 3-2 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.25 xG and Konyaspor 0.81 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gaziantep FK beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Konyaspor outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.11 / defence 0.87 against Konyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 46% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 24%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 38%, Konyaspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Konyaspor's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Gaziantep FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.