Gaziantep FK 1-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kayserispor make the trip to Gaziantep Stadyumu to face Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Friday 6 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gaziantep FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Gaziantep FK's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Gaziantep Stadyumu this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Gaziantep Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Kayserispor (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Kayserispor away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 0.80 for Kayserispor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Gaziantep FK register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Kayserispor in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gaziantep FK lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Gaziantep FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Kayserispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 54% versus Kayserispor 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 54% | Kayserispor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.73 xG and Kayserispor 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 1.024 / defence 1.034 | Kayserispor attack 0.802 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.341. Kayserispor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Gaziantep FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Gaziantep FK games / 35 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 50% | Draw 26% | Kayserispor 23%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Kayserispor 4.35. Gaziantep FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 70% | Kayserispor 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 50% | Draw 26% | Kayserispor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.73 / Kayserispor 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 1.024 / def 1.034 | Kayserispor attack 0.802 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Kayserispor xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 50% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor?
Record (1 meetings): Gaziantep FK 0W | Draws 1 | Kayserispor 0W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gaziantep FK's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Kayserispor's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.80x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
50%
1.98
26%
3.81
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.84
1.11
Kayserispor xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
4%
24.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.2 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.11 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 11W 9D 15L from 35 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 14L across 35 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 1.23 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 10W 6D 1L from 17 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 2W 6D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kayserispor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.40 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kayserispor in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
Kayserispor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 11W 9D 15L in their last 35 games (1.20 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 11W 10D 14L in their last 35 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Kayserispor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 2.12 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Gaziantep FK have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kayserispor won 3-0 on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gaziantep FK
4
Draws
3
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 3, Kayserispor have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Gaziantep FK 3-0 Kayserispor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gaziantep FK see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 59%, Kayserispor 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gaziantep FK) and 59% (Kayserispor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Gaziantep FK's games and 71% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 59% of Kayserispor's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor finished level at 1-1 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.73 xG and Kayserispor 1.11 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against Kayserispor attack 0.80 / defence 1.39, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 50% | Draw 26% | Kayserispor 23%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 54%, Kayserispor 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.20 PPG, Kayserispor 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.