Gaziantep FK 0-2 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Başakşehir travel to Kalyon Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kalyon Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Başakşehir — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gaziantep FK 1.20 PPG, Başakşehir 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Gaziantep FK have won 1, Başakşehir 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Başakşehir winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Başakşehir trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 48% versus Başakşehir 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 59% | Başakşehir 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.03 xG and Başakşehir 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.773 / defence 1.096 | Başakşehir attack 1.005 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.202. Gaziantep FK's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Gaziantep FK games / 62 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 26% | Draw 34% | Başakşehir 40%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 3.85 | Draw 2.94 | Başakşehir 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Gaziantep FK 60% | Başakşehir 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 26% | Draw 34% | Başakşehir 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.03 / Başakşehir 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.773 / def 1.096 | Başakşehir attack 1.005 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Başakşehir xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Gaziantep FK 0 - 2 Başakşehir.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 26% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
Record (5 meetings): Gaziantep FK 1W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 3W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (0.77) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
26%
3.86
34%
2.97
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.35
1.32
Başakşehir xG
3.86
26%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
7%
14.51
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.32 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Gaziantep FK have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 13W 14D 34L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir's form line: 26W 14D 21L from 61 games, 1.51 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gaziantep FK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gaziantep FK have posted 0.90 PPG from 30 outings (6W 9D 15L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 9W 9D 12L from 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.36 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 13W 14D 34L in their last 61 games (0.87 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 26W 14D 21L in their last 61 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 0.90 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Dec 2025, when Başakşehir won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gaziantep FK
1
Draws
7
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 2, Başakşehir have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-2 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 53%, Başakşehir 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Gaziantep FK) and 37% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 33% of games; Başakşehir in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 43% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 37% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Gaziantep FK 0-2 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.03 xG and Başakşehir 1.32 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gaziantep FK fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.77 / defence 1.10 against Başakşehir attack 1.00 / defence 0.90, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 26% | Draw 34% | Başakşehir 40%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 59%, Başakşehir 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Başakşehir's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.