Galatasaray 1-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Galatasaray vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 17 as Galatasaray welcome Başakşehir to NEF Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Galatasaray have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Galatasaray have posted 4W 1D 2L at NEF Stadyumu — 1.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Başakşehir — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 3W 0D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.29 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Başakşehir are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Galatasaray trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Başakşehir trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Galatasaray 56% versus Başakşehir 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Galatasaray 56% | Başakşehir 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galatasaray 1.19 xG and Başakşehir 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galatasaray attack 0.905 / defence 1.107 | Başakşehir attack 1.074 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.155. Data: 16 Galatasaray games / 16 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Galatasaray 32% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 41%. Fair-value odds: Galatasaray 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Başakşehir 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Galatasaray 57% | Başakşehir 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galatasaray vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: NEF Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galatasaray 32% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Galatasaray 1.19 / Başakşehir 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Galatasaray attack 0.905 / def 1.107 | Başakşehir attack 1.074 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Galatasaray xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Başakşehir xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Galatasaray vs Başakşehir kick off?
Galatasaray vs Başakşehir kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at NEF Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Galatasaray vs Başakşehir?
Galatasaray 1 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Galatasaray vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at NEF Stadyumu.
What competition is Galatasaray vs Başakşehir part of?
Galatasaray vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Galatasaray vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Galatasaray a 32% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Galatasaray and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Galatasaray vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Başakşehir?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Galatasaray and Başakşehir in?
Galatasaray (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Galatasaray's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Galatasaray's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
32%
3.11
27%
3.66
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Galatasaray xG
Total xG
2.57
1.37
Başakşehir xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.90
48%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Galatasaray vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Galatasaray and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Galatasaray and 1.37 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Galatasaray vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 16 outings, Galatasaray have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 6W 5D 5L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Galatasaray is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir's form line: 9W 1D 6L from 16 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Galatasaray on 1.44 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Galatasaray have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Galatasaray are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 3W 0D 4L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Başakşehir's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Galatasaray are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.56 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galatasaray
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Galatasaray and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Galatasaray have gone 6W 5D 5L in their last 16 games (1.44 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 9W 1D 6L in their last 16 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Galatasaray at home or Başakşehir away?
Galatasaray's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Galatasaray at home: 1.86 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Galatasaray have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2022, when Galatasaray won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Galatasaray's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Galatasaray
2
Draws
0
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Galatasaray have won 8, Başakşehir have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Galatasaray and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Galatasaray 3-0 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Galatasaray and Başakşehir?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Galatasaray 57%, Başakşehir 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Galatasaray and 86% for Başakşehir. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galatasaray home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Galatasaray play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Galatasaray's games and 71% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Galatasaray vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Galatasaray's matches and 86% of Başakşehir's.
Do Galatasaray and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Galatasaray have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Galatasaray and Başakşehir share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray and Başakşehir finished level at 1-1 at NEF Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 1.19 xG and Başakşehir 1.37 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 0.91 / defence 1.11 against Başakşehir attack 1.07 / defence 1.09, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 32% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 41%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 56%, Başakşehir 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Galatasaray's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Galatasaray 1.44 PPG, Başakşehir 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.