Göztepe 0-0 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Göztepe at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Kayserispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 22 as Göztepe welcome Kayserispor to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Göztepe — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kayserispor stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kayserispor have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Göztepe have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Göztepe, 2 for Kayserispor and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Göztepe trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Kayserispor trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 54% versus Kayserispor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 46% | Kayserispor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.71 xG and Kayserispor 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.069 / defence 0.737 | Kayserispor attack 0.767 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.316. Göztepe's defence rating of 0.737 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Göztepe games / 57 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 57% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 13%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.75 | Draw 3.33 | Kayserispor 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (57%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Göztepe 40% | Kayserispor 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 57% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Göztepe 1.71 / Kayserispor 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 1.069 / def 0.737 | Kayserispor attack 0.767 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Kayserispor xG
46%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Kayserispor kick off?
Göztepe vs Kayserispor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Kayserispor?
Göztepe 0 - 0 Kayserispor.
Where is Göztepe vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Kayserispor part of?
Göztepe vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 57% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 13% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Göztepe and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Kayserispor?
Record (5 meetings): Göztepe 1W | Draws 2 | Kayserispor 2W.
What form are Göztepe and Kayserispor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Kayserispor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Göztepe's attack rating (1.07) and Kayserispor's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
57%
1.75
30%
3.31
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.45
0.74
Kayserispor xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
2%
43.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.0 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.74 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Kayserispor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Göztepe's recent record stands at 24W 18D 15L from 57 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 13W 21D 23L across 57 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Göztepe by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kayserispor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Göztepe have managed 16W 9D 3L from 28 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 4W 12D 12L across 28 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Göztepe are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.09 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 24W 18D 15L in their last 57 games (1.58 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 13W 21D 23L in their last 57 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Kayserispor away?
Göztepe's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 2.04 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Kayserispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Kayserispor in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Sep 2024, when Göztepe won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Göztepe's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Göztepe
3
Draws
2
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Kayserispor?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 1, Kayserispor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Göztepe 0-0 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Kayserispor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 50%, Kayserispor 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Göztepe) and 43% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Kayserispor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Kayserispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Göztepe's recent matches and 57% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Göztepe's recent games and 43% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Göztepe's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, as Göztepe and Kayserispor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.71 xG and Kayserispor 0.74 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Göztepe fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.07 / defence 0.74 against Kayserispor attack 0.77 / defence 1.17, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 57% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 13%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 46%, Kayserispor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kayserispor's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.