Göztepe 2-1 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Göztepe at 43%, yet in-form Gaziantep FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 15 as Göztepe welcome Gaziantep FK to Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, Göztepe have gone 1W 1D 5L this season (7 games, 0.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 0W 1D 6L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.14 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Gaziantep FK are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Göztepe in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 36% of cases; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Gaziantep FK in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 64% versus Gaziantep FK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 43% | Gaziantep FK 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.15 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.615 / defence 1.193 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.617 / defence 1.586. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.084. Göztepe's attack strength of 0.615 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Gaziantep FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.586 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Göztepe games / 14 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 43% | Draw 33% | Gaziantep FK 24%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Gaziantep FK 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gaziantep FK (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 29% | Gaziantep FK 43% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı • Kick-off: Monday 6 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 43% | Draw 33% | Gaziantep FK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Göztepe 1.15 / Gaziantep FK 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.615 / def 1.193 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.617 / def 1.586 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Gaziantep FK xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 6 December 2021 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK?
Göztepe 2 - 1 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What competition is Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 43% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Göztepe and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Gaziantep FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Göztepe and Gaziantep FK in?
Göztepe (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Göztepe's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.59x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
43%
2.34
33%
3.05
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Göztepe xG
Total xG
1.94
0.80
Gaziantep FK xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
8%
12.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 11.4 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.80 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Göztepe's recent record stands at 2W 5D 7L from 14 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gaziantep FK, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 6L across 14 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gaziantep FK by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Göztepe heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Göztepe have managed 1W 1D 5L from 7 games — 0.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gaziantep FK's away record stands at 0W 1D 6L across 7 trips, a 0.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Göztepe are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.21 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 2W 5D 7L in their last 14 games (0.79 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Göztepe's home record (0.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 0.57 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Göztepe have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Göztepe's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Göztepe
2
Draws
1
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Gaziantep FK?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 3, Gaziantep FK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Göztepe 2-1 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Gaziantep FK?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Göztepe see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 29%, Gaziantep FK 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Göztepe) and 57% (Gaziantep FK).
On the defensive side: Göztepe have failed to score in 71% of games; Gaziantep FK in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Gaziantep FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Göztepe's recent matches and 43% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Göztepe's recent games and 57% of Gaziantep FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Göztepe edge out Gaziantep FK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Gaziantep FK 2-1 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.15 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.80 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Göztepe beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.61 / defence 1.19 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.62 / defence 1.59, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 43% | Draw 33% | Gaziantep FK 24%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 43%, Gaziantep FK 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gaziantep FK arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Göztepe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.