Fenerbahçe 1-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Trabzonspor travel to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to take on Fenerbahçe. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's home record at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Trabzonspor are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fenerbahçe register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Trabzonspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Fenerbahçe have won 0, Trabzonspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–3 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fenerbahçe 70% and Trabzonspor 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 56% | Trabzonspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.10 xG and Trabzonspor 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.058 / defence 1.062 | Trabzonspor attack 1.223 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.189. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.223 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 27 Fenerbahçe games / 27 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 26% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 47%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Trabzonspor 2.13. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 60% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 26% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.10 / Trabzonspor 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.058 / def 1.062 | Trabzonspor attack 1.223 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Trabzonspor xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Fenerbahçe 1 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 26% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor?
Record (1 meetings): Fenerbahçe 0W | Draws 0 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.06) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
26%
3.78
26%
3.80
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.64
1.54
Trabzonspor xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
6%
17.72
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.54 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 13W 7D 7L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 20W 6D 1L from 27 games, 2.44 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fenerbahçe.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fenerbahçe have posted 1.85 PPG from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 10W 2D 1L from 13 away games — 2.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fenerbahçe are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.89 scored and 0.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 13W 7D 7L in their last 27 games (1.70 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 20W 6D 1L in their last 27 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 1.85 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 2.46 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fenerbahçe have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2025, when Fenerbahçe won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Fenerbahçe
1
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 6, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Trabzonspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 62%, Trabzonspor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Fenerbahçe and 62% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Fenerbahçe's games and 62% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 62% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 28, as Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.10 xG and Trabzonspor 1.54 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.06 / defence 1.06 against Trabzonspor attack 1.22 / defence 0.87, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 26% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 47%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 56%, Trabzonspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.