Fenerbahçe 1-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fenerbahçe host Sivasspor at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 7 November 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Fenerbahçe have won 0, Sivasspor 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fenerbahçe 57% and Sivasspor 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 57% | Sivasspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.29 xG and Sivasspor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.538 / defence 0.979 | Sivasspor attack 0.904 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.346. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.538 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Fenerbahçe games / 50 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 19% | Sivasspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | Sivasspor 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 40% | Sivasspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Monday 7 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 19% | Sivasspor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 63% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.29 / Sivasspor 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.538 / def 0.979 | Sivasspor attack 0.904 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sivasspor xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 7 November 2022 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Fenerbahçe 1 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 62% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor?
Record (2 meetings): Fenerbahçe 0W | Draws 2 | Sivasspor 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.54x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
62%
1.61
19%
5.15
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.48
1.19
Sivasspor xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
10%
9.89
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
2%
53.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.19 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 2.02 PPG on a 29W 12D 8L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor's form line: 16W 16D 17L from 49 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sivasspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fenerbahçe have posted 2.12 PPG from 24 outings (15W 6D 3L).
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 8W 4D 12L from 24 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.29 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 63%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 29W 12D 8L in their last 49 games (2.02 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 16W 16D 17L in their last 49 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Sivasspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.12 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fenerbahçe
3
Draws
0
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 5, Sivasspor have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Sivasspor 1-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 58%, Sivasspor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Fenerbahçe) and 58% (Sivasspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Fenerbahçe's games and 62% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 58% of Sivasspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Sivasspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Sivasspor 1-0 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.29 xG and Sivasspor 1.19 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fenerbahçe fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sivasspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.54 / defence 0.98 against Sivasspor attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 19% | Sivasspor 19%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 57%, Sivasspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sivasspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.