Fenerbahçe 2-0 Bodrum FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Bodrum FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi plays host to Fenerbahçe versus Bodrum FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Fenerbahçe (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 8W 1D 1L at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bodrum FK have collected 1.11 PPG across 9 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 1.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodrum FK's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.19 in Fenerbahçe's favour (2.30 vs 1.11) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Bodrum FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Fenerbahçe 33% | Bodrum FK 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 67% | Bodrum FK 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.90 xG and Bodrum FK 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.231 / defence 0.893 | Bodrum FK attack 0.630 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.343. Data: 46 Fenerbahçe games / 9 Bodrum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 64% | Draw 22% | Bodrum FK 14%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Bodrum FK 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 60% | Bodrum FK 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Bodrum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 64% | Draw 22% | Bodrum FK 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 45% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.90 / Bodrum FK 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.231 / def 0.893 | Bodrum FK attack 0.630 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (64%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Bodrum FK xG
45%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Bodrum FK kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Bodrum FK kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Bodrum FK?
Fenerbahçe 2 - 0 Bodrum FK.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Bodrum FK being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Bodrum FK part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Bodrum FK is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Bodrum FK?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 64% chance of winning, Bodrum FK a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Bodrum FK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Bodrum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Bodrum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Bodrum FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Bodrum FK in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Bodrum FK (all comps): 3W-1D-5L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.22 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Fenerbahçe vs Bodrum FK?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.23) and Bodrum FK's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bodrum FK's attack (0.63x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 46/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
64%
1.56
22%
4.55
14%
7.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.65
0.76
Bodrum FK xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
7.20
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
30%
3.32
2%
48.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Bodrum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Bodrum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.76 for Bodrum FK, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Bodrum FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 6W 2D 1L from 9 games, a 2.22 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodrum FK, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 5L across 9 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Bodrum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.11 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bodrum FK heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bodrum FK's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Bodrum FK are on 0.89 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Bodrum FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Bodrum FK in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 6W 2D 1L in their last 9 games (2.22 PPG), while Bodrum FK have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Bodrum FK away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.25 PPG; Bodrum FK away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Bodrum FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Bodrum FK in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Fenerbahçe
0
Draws
0
Bodrum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Bodrum FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 2, Bodrum FK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Bodrum FK last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2025, when Bodrum FK 2-4 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Bodrum FK?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Bodrum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Fenerbahçe) and 25% (Bodrum FK) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Fenerbahçe) and 25% (Bodrum FK).
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Bodrum FK in 50%; Bodrum FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Bodrum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Bodrum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 25% of Bodrum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Bodrum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Fenerbahçe's recent games and 25% of Bodrum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fenerbahçe and Bodrum FK tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bodrum FK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bodrum FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Bodrum FK 2-0 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.90 xG and Bodrum FK 0.76 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.23 / defence 0.89 against Bodrum FK attack 0.63 / defence 1.06, drawn from 46/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 64% | Draw 22% | Bodrum FK 14%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 67%, Bodrum FK 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bodrum FK's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.