Fenerbahçe 3-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (69%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Fenerbahçe face Antalyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antalyaspor make the trip to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Sunday 2 March 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
Fenerbahçe (all games): 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fenerbahçe at home: 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Antalyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Antalyaspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Fenerbahçe's favour (2.60 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Fenerbahçe have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins, with Antalyaspor managing 0 and 1 draw.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2024, ended Fenerbahçe 2–0 Antalyaspor — a Fenerbahçe win.
The head-to-head data gives Fenerbahçe an edge — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Fenerbahçe — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 78%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 55% versus Antalyaspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 66% | Antalyaspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.48 xG and Antalyaspor 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.326 / defence 0.983 | Antalyaspor attack 0.860 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.199. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack rating of 1.326 — their 2.48 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Fenerbahçe's last 62 games and Antalyaspor's last 62.
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 69% | Draw 18% | Antalyaspor 13%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.46 | Draw 5.42 | Antalyaspor 7.76. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (69%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fenerbahçe's last 10 home games and Antalyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fenerbahçe 70% (last 10 home games) | Antalyaspor 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 26 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 69% | Draw 18% | Antalyaspor 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Fenerbahçe 2.48 / Antalyaspor 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.326 / def 0.983 | Antalyaspor attack 0.860 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Antalyaspor xG
59%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor FAQs
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Fenerbahçe 3 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 26) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 69% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 13% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.33) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.86x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Fenerbahçe's last 62 games and Antalyaspor's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.3%), 1-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
69%
1.46
18%
5.42
13%
7.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.49
1.01
Antalyaspor xG
1.46
69%
Home win
5.42
18%
Draw
7.76
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
8%
11.91
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
1%
92.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.01 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 2.53 PPG on a 49W 10D 3L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Antalyaspor's form line: 20W 19D 23L from 62 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 1.26 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antalyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fenerbahçe have posted 2.60 PPG from their last 30 home games (25W 3D 2L).
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 6W 8D 16L from their last 30 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.56 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.16 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe (Home) vs Antalyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 49W 10D 3L in their last 62 games (2.53 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 20W 19D 23L in their last 62 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Antalyaspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.60 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won Fenerbahçe 3-0 Antalyaspor on 2 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
0
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Fenerbahçe have won 8, Antalyaspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Antalyaspor 2-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Fenerbahçe, 63% for Antalyaspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Fenerbahçe and 53% for Antalyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Fenerbahçe's games and 63% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 53% of Antalyaspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 87% of Antalyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Antalyaspor 3-0 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.48 xG and Antalyaspor 1.01 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.33 / defence 0.98 against Antalyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.15, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 69% | Draw 18% | Antalyaspor 13%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 66%, Antalyaspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.