Fenerbahçe 3-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Antalyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antalyaspor make the trip to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Fenerbahçe (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Fenerbahçe's favour (2.60 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 7 previous meetings, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 2–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The historical record gives Fenerbahçe a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fenerbahçe — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 55% versus Antalyaspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 66% | Antalyaspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.48 xG and Antalyaspor 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.326 / defence 0.983 | Antalyaspor attack 0.860 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.199. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — their λ of 2.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 Fenerbahçe games / 62 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 69% | Draw 18% | Antalyaspor 13%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | Antalyaspor 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 70% | Antalyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 69% | Draw 18% | Antalyaspor 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 59% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.48 / Antalyaspor 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.326 / def 0.983 | Antalyaspor attack 0.860 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Antalyaspor xG
59%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Fenerbahçe 3 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 69% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 13% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor?
Record (7 meetings): Fenerbahçe 6W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.33) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.86x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.3%), 1-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
69%
1.46
18%
5.42
13%
7.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.49
1.01
Antalyaspor xG
1.46
69%
Home win
5.42
18%
Draw
7.76
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
8%
11.91
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
1%
92.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.01 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 2.53 PPG on a 49W 10D 3L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor's form line: 20W 19D 23L from 62 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 1.26 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antalyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fenerbahçe have posted 2.60 PPG from 30 outings (25W 3D 2L).
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 6W 8D 16L from 30 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.56 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.16 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 49W 10D 3L in their last 62 games (2.53 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 20W 19D 23L in their last 62 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Antalyaspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.60 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 3-0 on 2 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
0
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 8, Antalyaspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Antalyaspor 2-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Fenerbahçe, 63% for Antalyaspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Fenerbahçe and 53% for Antalyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Antalyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Fenerbahçe's games and 63% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 53% of Antalyaspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Antalyaspor 3-0 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.48 xG and Antalyaspor 1.01 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.33 / defence 0.98 against Antalyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.15, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 69% | Draw 18% | Antalyaspor 13%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 66%, Antalyaspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.