Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 İstanbulspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük host İstanbulspor at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 December 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, İstanbulspor stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for İstanbulspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, İstanbulspor have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fatih Karagümrük at 1.00 PPG versus İstanbulspor's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 1 for İstanbulspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
İstanbulspor in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 63% versus İstanbulspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 61% | İstanbulspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.71 xG and İstanbulspor 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.948 / defence 0.758 | İstanbulspor attack 0.762 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.195. Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Fatih Karagümrük games / 49 İstanbulspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Draw 26% | İstanbulspor 13%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | İstanbulspor 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Fatih Karagümrük (60%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 30% | İstanbulspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Friday 1 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Draw 26% | İstanbulspor 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 42% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.71 / İstanbulspor 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.948 / def 0.758 | İstanbulspor attack 0.762 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
0.69
İstanbulspor xG
42%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 1 December 2023 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 3 - 0 İstanbulspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 60% chance of winning, İstanbulspor a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor?
Record (2 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 1W | Draws 0 | İstanbulspor 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. İstanbulspor (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 0.95x the league average against İstanbulspor's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, İstanbulspor's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
60%
1.65
26%
3.78
13%
7.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.40
0.69
İstanbulspor xG
1.65
60%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
7.63
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
2%
42.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 10.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.69 for İstanbulspor, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 49 games, going 16W 17D 16L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, İstanbulspor sit at 1.00 PPG from 49 outings (14W 7D 28L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for İstanbulspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fatih Karagümrük on 1.33 PPG, İstanbulspor on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 9W 8D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, İstanbulspor have taken 0.88 points per game from 24 outings (6W 3D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; İstanbulspor are on 1.18 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
İstanbulspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 16W 17D 16L in their last 49 games (1.33 PPG), while İstanbulspor have gone 14W 7D 28L in their last 49 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or İstanbulspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.46 PPG; İstanbulspor away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fatih Karagümrük go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Fatih Karagümrük won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting İstanbulspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Fatih Karagümrük
0
Draws
1
İstanbulspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, İstanbulspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when İstanbulspor 1-2 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 58%, İstanbulspor 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 54% (İstanbulspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / İstanbulspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play İstanbulspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 46% of İstanbulspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 54% of İstanbulspor's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, İstanbulspor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fatih Karagümrük run riot with a 3-0 hammering of İstanbulspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat İstanbulspor 3-0 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.71 xG and İstanbulspor 0.69 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.95 / defence 0.76 against İstanbulspor attack 0.76 / defence 1.20, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Draw 26% | İstanbulspor 13%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 61%, İstanbulspor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
İstanbulspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.33 PPG, İstanbulspor 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.