Fatih Karagümrük 4-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 60%, yet in-form Rizespor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rizespor make the trip to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to face Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Sunday 28 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Rizespor (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Rizespor have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Rizespor are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 1 for Rizespor and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2023, ended Fatih Karagümrük 0–1 Rizespor — a Rizespor win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 41% versus Rizespor 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 41% | Rizespor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.96 xG and Rizespor 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.077 / defence 0.916 | Rizespor attack 0.821 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.219. Rizespor's defence rating of 1.215 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fatih Karagümrük's projected output up. Data: built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 58 games and Rizespor's last 22.
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 15%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 1.66 | Draw 4.08 | Rizespor 6.48. The model has a clear lean to Fatih Karagümrük (60%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 60% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fatih Karagümrük 40% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 23 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 28 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.96 / Rizespor 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.077 / def 0.916 | Rizespor attack 0.821 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Rizespor xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor FAQs
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor?
Fatih Karagümrük 4 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 23) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 60% chance of winning, Rizespor a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 1.08x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.82x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 58 games and Rizespor's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.08
15%
6.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.87
0.92
Rizespor xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
6.48
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
14%
7.07
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
2%
45.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.92 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 6D 11L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.59 PPG from 22 outings (10W 5D 7L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Rizespor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Fatih Karagümrük are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 0.90 points per game from their last 10 away games (2W 3D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.23 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Rizespor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük (Home) vs Rizespor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor Form FAQs
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 5W 6D 11L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 10W 5D 7L in their last 22 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Rizespor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.60 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Rizespor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won Fatih Karagümrük 4-0 Rizespor on 28 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Fatih Karagümrük
1
Draws
2
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, Rizespor have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2026: Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 40%, Rizespor 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Fatih Karagümrük and 70% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 30% of games; Rizespor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 70% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 70% of Rizespor's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 80% of Rizespor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fatih Karagümrük run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Rizespor 4-0 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.96 xG and Rizespor 0.92 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rizespor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.08 / defence 0.92 against Rizespor attack 0.82 / defence 1.22, drawn from 58/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 15%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 41%, Rizespor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Fatih Karagümrük winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.