Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Kayserispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Friday 18 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 3W 4D 3L at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Kayserispor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Kayserispor's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Fatih Karagümrük 0W, Kayserispor 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Kayserispor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Kayserispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 45% versus Kayserispor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 48% | Kayserispor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.33 xG and Kayserispor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.729 / defence 0.926 | Kayserispor attack 0.892 / defence 1.506. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.246. Fatih Karagümrük's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kayserispor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.506 — this is suppressing Fatih Karagümrük's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Fatih Karagümrük games / 29 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 43% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 29%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Kayserispor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Kayserispor 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 43% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.33 / Kayserispor 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.729 / def 0.926 | Kayserispor attack 0.892 / def 1.506 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Kayserispor xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 18 March 2022 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
Fatih Karagümrük 3 - 0 Kayserispor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 43% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor?
Record (1 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 0 | Kayserispor 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Kayserispor's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.89x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
43%
2.30
28%
3.61
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.36
1.03
Kayserispor xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
8%
13.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.03 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 29 games, going 11W 7D 11L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Kayserispor sit at 1.31 PPG from 29 outings (10W 8D 11L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.31 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 6W 5D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Kayserispor have taken 0.57 points per game from 14 outings (1W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kayserispor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.48 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kayserispor in 62%.
Last 29 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
Kayserispor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 11W 7D 11L in their last 29 games (1.38 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 10W 8D 11L in their last 29 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Kayserispor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.64 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Kayserispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kayserispor in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won 3-0 on 18 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
2
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 4, Kayserispor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Kayserispor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 43%, Kayserispor 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 57% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 71% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 57% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fatih Karagümrük run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Kayserispor 3-0 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.33 xG and Kayserispor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kayserispor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.73 / defence 0.93 against Kayserispor attack 0.89 / defence 1.51, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 43% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 29%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 48%, Kayserispor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kayserispor's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.38 PPG, Kayserispor 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.