Fatih Karagümrük 2-2 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Kayserispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Friday 24 October 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 0.33 PPG across 9 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 2.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.22 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 0W 0D 5L at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı — 0.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kayserispor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.33 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Fatih Karagümrük are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fatih Karagümrük and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Kayserispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 44% versus Kayserispor 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 56% | Kayserispor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.12 xG and Kayserispor 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.698 / defence 1.476 | Kayserispor attack 0.820 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.300. Fatih Karagümrük's attack strength of 0.698 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kayserispor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Fatih Karagümrük's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Fatih Karagümrük games / 45 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 25% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 45%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Kayserispor 2.22. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kayserispor as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Fatih Karagümrük 20% | Kayserispor 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Friday 24 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 25% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.12 / Kayserispor 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.698 / def 1.476 | Kayserispor attack 0.820 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Kayserispor xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 24 October 2025 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
Fatih Karagümrük 2 - 2 Kayserispor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 25% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor?
Record (6 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 4W | Draws 1 | Kayserispor 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-0D-8L in 9 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 2.22 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Kayserispor's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.82x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 9/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
25%
4.03
30%
3.35
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.70
1.57
Kayserispor xG
4.03
25%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
5%
19.41
15%
6.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.57 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 9 games, going 1W 0D 8L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kayserispor sit at 0.56 PPG from 9 outings (0W 5D 4L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.33 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 0.56 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 0W 0D 4L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Kayserispor have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 0.67 scored and 2.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kayserispor in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 0D 8L in their last 9 games (0.33 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 0W 5D 4L in their last 9 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Kayserispor away?
Kayserispor's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 0.00 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won 3-0 on 18 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
2
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 4, Kayserispor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Kayserispor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fatih Karagümrük see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Kayserispor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 25%, Kayserispor 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Fatih Karagümrük and 25% for Kayserispor.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Kayserispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 75% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 25% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 10, as Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.12 xG and Kayserispor 1.57 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.70 / defence 1.48 against Kayserispor attack 0.82 / defence 1.22, drawn from 9/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 25% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 45%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 56%, Kayserispor 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 0.33 PPG, Kayserispor 0.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.