Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hatayspor make the trip to Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu to face Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Hatayspor have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fatih Karagümrük lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 0–3 with Hatayspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 52% versus Hatayspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 52% | Hatayspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.58 xG and Hatayspor 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.130 / defence 1.220 | Hatayspor attack 0.823 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.281. Data: 46 Fatih Karagümrük games / 46 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 44% | Draw 25% | Hatayspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Hatayspor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 70% | Hatayspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 44% | Draw 25% | Hatayspor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.58 / Hatayspor 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.130 / def 1.220 | Hatayspor attack 0.823 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Hatayspor xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 3 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 44% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor?
Record (2 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 1 | Hatayspor 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.82x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
44%
2.27
25%
4.00
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.87
1.29
Hatayspor xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
6%
15.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.29 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 17W 12D 17L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor's form line: 17W 9D 20L from 46 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.30 for Hatayspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1.70 PPG from 23 outings (11W 6D 6L).
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 6W 3D 14L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.33 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 17W 12D 17L in their last 46 games (1.37 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 17W 9D 20L in their last 46 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Hatayspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.70 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hatayspor won 3-0 on 12 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, Hatayspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when Hatayspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 56%, Hatayspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 48% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Hatayspor in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 44% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 48% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fatih Karagümrük run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Hatayspor 3-0 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.58 xG and Hatayspor 1.29 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hatayspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.13 / defence 1.22 against Hatayspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.02, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 44% | Draw 25% | Hatayspor 31%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 52%, Hatayspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatayspor's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.37 PPG, Hatayspor 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.