Fatih Karagümrük 0-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Tuesday 18 January 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Beşiktaş (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Fatih Karagümrük, 1.20 for Beşiktaş — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Beşiktaş in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fatih Karagümrük lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Beşiktaş winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 57% versus Beşiktaş 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 48% | Beşiktaş 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.36 xG and Beşiktaş 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.930 / defence 1.222 | Beşiktaş attack 0.853 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.107. Beşiktaş bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Fatih Karagümrük's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Fatih Karagümrük games / 21 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 41% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 31%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Beşiktaş 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Beşiktaş 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Jan 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 41% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.36 / Beşiktaş 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.930 / def 1.222 | Beşiktaş attack 0.853 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Beşiktaş xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 18 January 2022 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş?
Fatih Karagümrük 0 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 41% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş?
Record (1 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.85x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.51
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.52
1.15
Beşiktaş xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
8%
12.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.15 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fatih Karagümrük's recent record stands at 8W 6D 7L from 21 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 7L across 21 games — 1.52 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.52 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fatih Karagümrük have managed 4W 4D 2L from 10 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beşiktaş's away record stands at 1W 4D 5L across 10 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.57 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 8W 6D 7L in their last 21 games (1.43 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 9W 5D 7L in their last 21 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Beşiktaş away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.60 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 4-1 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
6
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Beşiktaş 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 60%, Beşiktaş 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 50% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 60% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 50% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beşiktaş defy the odds to beat Fatih Karagümrük 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Fatih Karagümrük 0-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.36 xG and Beşiktaş 1.15 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fatih Karagümrük fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.93 / defence 1.22 against Beşiktaş attack 0.85 / defence 1.28, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 41% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 31%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 48%, Beşiktaş 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.43 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.