Eyüpspor 1-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eyüpspor at 70% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu plays host to Eyüpspor versus Sivasspor in Süper Lig (matchday 22). Kick-off: Friday 31 January 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Eyüpspor's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Eyüpspor have gone 6W 2D 1L in their last 9 home games (2.22 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Sivasspor (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Sivasspor away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Eyüpspor's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Sivasspor's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Eyüpspor edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Eyüpspor 1–0 Sivasspor — a Eyüpspor win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sivasspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 55% versus Sivasspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 50% | Sivasspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 2.35 xG and Sivasspor 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 1.072 / defence 0.815 | Sivasspor attack 0.824 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.242. Sivasspor's defence rating of 1.282 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Eyüpspor's projected output up. Data: built from Eyüpspor's last 20 games and Sivasspor's last 58.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 70% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 10%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.44 | Draw 4.94 | Sivasspor 9.90. The model has a clear lean to Eyüpspor (70%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Eyüpspor's last 9 home games and Sivasspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Eyüpspor 44% (last 9 home games) | Sivasspor 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 22 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 31 January 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 70% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Eyüpspor 2.35 / Sivasspor 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 1.072 / def 0.815 | Sivasspor attack 0.824 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Sivasspor xG
53%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor FAQs
What time does Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 31 January 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor?
Eyüpspor 1 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 22) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 70% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 10% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Eyüpspor and Sivasspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Eyüpspor's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.82x) against Eyüpspor's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Eyüpspor's last 20 games and Sivasspor's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
70%
1.44
20%
4.94
10%
9.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
3.18
0.83
Sivasspor xG
1.44
70%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
9.90
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
10%
10.48
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
1%
103.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 0.83 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Eyüpspor have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 10W 6D 4L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Sivasspor's form line: 6W 5D 9L from 20 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Eyüpspor are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sivasspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Eyüpspor have posted 2.22 PPG from their last 9 home games (6W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Eyüpspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 2W 1D 6L from their last 9 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Defensively: Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
Eyüpspor (Home) vs Sivasspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Eyüpspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor Form FAQs
What form are Eyüpspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 10W 6D 4L in their last 20 games (1.80 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 6W 5D 9L in their last 20 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 2.22 PPG; Sivasspor away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 31 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
0
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Sivasspor?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Eyüpspor have won 2, Sivasspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2025: Eyüpspor 1-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Sivasspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 44%, Sivasspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Eyüpspor and 67% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Sivasspor in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Eyüpspor and Sivasspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 44% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Eyüpspor and Sivasspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Eyüpspor's matches and 67% of Sivasspor's.
Do Eyüpspor and Sivasspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 78% of Sivasspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eyüpspor edge out Sivasspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Sivasspor 1-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 2.35 xG and Sivasspor 0.83 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Eyüpspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sivasspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 1.07 / defence 0.81 against Sivasspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.28, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 70% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 10%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 50%, Sivasspor 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sivasspor's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.