Eyüpspor 3-0 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Eyüpspor welcome Samsunspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 15). Kick-off is Sunday 8 December 2024 at 10:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Eyüpspor have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Eyüpspor at home: 4W 1D 1L from their last 6 home games — 2.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Samsunspor — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Samsunspor have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Samsunspor are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (last 14 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (last 14 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 64% versus Samsunspor 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 50% | Samsunspor 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Eyüpspor surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Samsunspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.24 xG and Samsunspor 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.893 / defence 0.979 | Samsunspor attack 1.296 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.268. Samsunspor have an above-average attack rating of 1.296, which lifts their away xG to 1.61. Data: built from Eyüpspor's last 14 games and Samsunspor's last 52.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 28% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 45%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 3.53 | Draw 3.71 | Samsunspor 2.24. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Samsunspor at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Eyüpspor's last 6 home games and Samsunspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Eyüpspor 50% (last 6 home games) | Samsunspor 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 15 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 8 December 2024 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 28% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Eyüpspor 1.24 / Samsunspor 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.893 / def 0.979 | Samsunspor attack 1.296 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Samsunspor xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor FAQs
What time does Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor?
Eyüpspor 3 - 0 Samsunspor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 15) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 28% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Eyüpspor and Samsunspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eyüpspor's attack at 0.89x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Eyüpspor's last 14 games and Samsunspor's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
28%
3.53
27%
3.71
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.85
1.61
Samsunspor xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
6%
17.66
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.61 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eyüpspor come into this having played 14 games, going 6W 5D 3L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 2.07 PPG from 14 outings (9W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Samsunspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Eyüpspor's home form reads 4W 1D 1L across their last 6 home games, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Eyüpspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 2.50 points per game from their last 6 away games (5W 0D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 2.07 PPG overall record — Samsunspor travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 2.07 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eyüpspor have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Samsunspor in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
Eyüpspor (Home) vs Samsunspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Eyüpspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor Form FAQs
What form are Eyüpspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 6W 5D 3L in their last 14 games (1.64 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 9W 2D 3L in their last 14 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Samsunspor's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 2.17 PPG; Samsunspor away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 13 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Samsunspor have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Dec 2024, when Eyüpspor won Eyüpspor 3-0 Samsunspor.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
3
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Samsunspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Eyüpspor have won 1, Samsunspor have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2026: Eyüpspor 1-2 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 50%, Samsunspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Eyüpspor) and 67% (Samsunspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Samsunspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Eyüpspor and Samsunspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 50% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Eyüpspor and Samsunspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Eyüpspor's matches and 67% of Samsunspor's.
Do Eyüpspor and Samsunspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 83% of Samsunspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Eyüpspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Samsunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Samsunspor 3-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.24 xG and Samsunspor 1.61 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Eyüpspor beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Samsunspor landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against Samsunspor attack 1.30 / defence 0.89, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 28% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 45%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Eyüpspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 50%, Samsunspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Samsunspor's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.64. Form was overturned, with Eyüpspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.