Eyüpspor 1-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eyüpspor at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Eyüpspor welcome Kayserispor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 16 February 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Eyüpspor's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Kayserispor have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Kayserispor's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Eyüpspor have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Eyüpspor, 0 for Kayserispor and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2024, ended Eyüpspor 2–2 Kayserispor — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 50% versus Kayserispor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 46% | Kayserispor 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 2.01 xG and Kayserispor 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.995 / defence 0.788 | Kayserispor attack 0.892 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.211. Kayserispor's defence rating of 1.229 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Eyüpspor's projected output up. Eyüpspor have a tight defence (rating 0.788), which is pulling Kayserispor's projected output down. Data: built from Eyüpspor's last 22 games and Kayserispor's last 59.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 63% | Draw 22% | Kayserispor 14%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.58 | Draw 4.46 | Kayserispor 7.10. The model has a clear lean to Eyüpspor (63%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eyüpspor at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Eyüpspor 40% (last 10 home games) | Kayserispor 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 24 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 63% | Draw 22% | Kayserispor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Eyüpspor 2.01 / Kayserispor 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.995 / def 0.788 | Kayserispor attack 0.892 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Kayserispor xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor FAQs
What time does Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor?
Eyüpspor 1 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 24) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 63% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Eyüpspor and Kayserispor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eyüpspor's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Kayserispor's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Eyüpspor's last 22 games and Kayserispor's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.46
14%
7.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.86
0.85
Kayserispor xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
7.10
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
13%
7.47
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
2%
53.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 0.85 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Eyüpspor have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 11W 6D 5L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Kayserispor's form line: 4W 8D 10L from 22 games, 0.91 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Eyüpspor are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kayserispor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Eyüpspor have posted 2.30 PPG from their last 10 home games (7W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Eyüpspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kayserispor have gone 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.05 scored and 1.95 conceded.
Defensively: Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
Eyüpspor (Home) vs Kayserispor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Eyüpspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor Form FAQs
What form are Eyüpspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 11W 6D 5L in their last 22 games (1.77 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 4W 8D 10L in their last 22 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 2.30 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Kayserispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Kayserispor in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
4
Draws
0
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Kayserispor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Eyüpspor have won 0, Kayserispor have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2026: Kayserispor 1-1 Eyüpspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 40%, Kayserispor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Eyüpspor) and 50% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Kayserispor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Eyüpspor and Kayserispor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 50% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Eyüpspor and Kayserispor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 50% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Kayserispor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 70% of Kayserispor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eyüpspor and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, as Eyüpspor and Kayserispor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 2.01 xG and Kayserispor 0.85 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Eyüpspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.99 / defence 0.79 against Kayserispor attack 0.89 / defence 1.23, drawn from 22/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 63% | Draw 22% | Kayserispor 14%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 46%, Kayserispor 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Kayserispor's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.