Eyüpspor 0-1 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eyüpspor at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Gaziantep FK travel to Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 August 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium, Eyüpspor have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gaziantep FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gaziantep FK's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Eyüpspor at 1.10 PPG versus Gaziantep FK's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Eyüpspor, 1 for Gaziantep FK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 3–0 with Eyüpspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Gaziantep FK in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 43% versus Gaziantep FK 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 46% | Gaziantep FK 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.65 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 1.035 / defence 0.954 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.972 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.211. Data: 35 Eyüpspor games / 35 Gaziantep FK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 49% | Draw 26% | Gaziantep FK 25%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Gaziantep FK 4.00. Eyüpspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eyüpspor are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 40% | Gaziantep FK 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 49% | Draw 26% | Gaziantep FK 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Eyüpspor 1.65 / Gaziantep FK 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 1.035 / def 0.954 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.972 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Gaziantep FK xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Eyüpspor 0 - 1 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 49% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (4 meetings): Eyüpspor 3W | Draws 0 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eyüpspor's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.88
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.78
1.12
Gaziantep FK xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
5%
20.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.12 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Eyüpspor have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 8W 9D 18L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gaziantep FK's form line: 9W 11D 15L from 35 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 0.94 PPG, Gaziantep FK on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Eyüpspor have posted 1.12 PPG from 17 outings (5W 4D 8L).
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 4W 5D 8L from 17 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.26 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gaziantep FK in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Gaziantep FK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 8W 9D 18L in their last 35 games (0.94 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 9W 11D 15L in their last 35 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.12 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when Eyüpspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
2
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 5 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 3, Gaziantep FK have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Eyüpspor 0-1 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 41%, Gaziantep FK 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Eyüpspor) and 71% (Gaziantep FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor have failed to score in 35% of games; Gaziantep FK in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Gaziantep FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 59% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Eyüpspor's matches and 71% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gaziantep FK defy the odds to beat Eyüpspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Eyüpspor 0-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.65 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.12 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Eyüpspor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 1.03 / defence 0.95 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 49% | Draw 26% | Gaziantep FK 25%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Gaziantep FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 46%, Gaziantep FK 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 0.94 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.