Eyüpspor 2-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Antalyaspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 May 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eyüpspor have posted 4W 2D 4L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Antalyaspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Antalyaspor away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Eyüpspor) versus 1.40 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Eyüpspor, 0 for Antalyaspor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2025, ended 4–1 with Eyüpspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 54% versus Antalyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 54% | Antalyaspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.95 xG and Antalyaspor 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.984 / defence 1.301 | Antalyaspor attack 0.684 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.250. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Eyüpspor games / 72 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 57% | Draw 22% | Antalyaspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Antalyaspor 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Eyüpspor (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eyüpspor are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 60% | Antalyaspor 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 57% | Draw 22% | Antalyaspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Eyüpspor 1.95 / Antalyaspor 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.984 / def 1.301 | Antalyaspor attack 0.684 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Antalyaspor xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor?
Eyüpspor 2 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 57% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Eyüpspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Eyüpspor 1W | Draws 0 | Antalyaspor 0W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Antalyaspor in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Eyüpspor's attack at 0.98x the league average against Antalyaspor's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.51
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
3.06
1.11
Antalyaspor xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
14%
7.03
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
3%
33.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.11 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eyüpspor come into this having played 35 games, going 14W 8D 13L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.29 PPG from 35 outings (12W 9D 14L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 1.43 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Eyüpspor's home form reads 9W 3D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.59 points per game from 17 outings (2W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.06 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 14W 8D 13L in their last 35 games (1.43 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 12W 9D 14L in their last 35 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.76 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eyüpspor and Antalyaspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Antalyaspor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2025, when Eyüpspor won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Antalyaspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 2, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Antalyaspor 3-0 Eyüpspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 53%, Antalyaspor 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Eyüpspor) and 53% (Antalyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 47% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Eyüpspor's matches and 53% of Antalyaspor's.
Do Eyüpspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eyüpspor edge out Antalyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Antalyaspor 2-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.95 xG and Antalyaspor 1.11 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.30 against Antalyaspor attack 0.68 / defence 1.24, drawn from 35/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 57% | Draw 22% | Antalyaspor 21%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 54%, Antalyaspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.43 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.