Bodrum FK 0-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Bodrum FK take on Eyüpspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bodrum FK host Eyüpspor at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 January 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bodrum FK — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodrum FK at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu this season: 3W 2D 4L from 9 home games — 1.22 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.22 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Bodrum FK are significantly better at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Eyüpspor — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bodrum FK, 1 for Eyüpspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2024, ended 1–4 with Eyüpspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bodrum FK in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 22% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodrum FK 32% versus Eyüpspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodrum FK 32% | Eyüpspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 1.08 xG and Eyüpspor 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.663 / defence 0.897 | Eyüpspor attack 1.014 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.206. Bodrum FK's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Bodrum FK games / 19 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 32% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Eyüpspor 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bodrum FK 33% | Eyüpspor 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodrum FK vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodrum FK 32% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Bodrum FK 1.08 / Eyüpspor 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Bodrum FK attack 0.663 / def 0.897 | Eyüpspor attack 1.014 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.684 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Bodrum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Eyüpspor xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodrum FK vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Bodrum FK vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Bodrum FK vs Eyüpspor?
Bodrum FK 0 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Bodrum FK vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What competition is Bodrum FK vs Eyüpspor part of?
Bodrum FK vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Bodrum FK vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Bodrum FK a 32% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bodrum FK vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bodrum FK and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Bodrum FK vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Eyüpspor?
Record (1 meetings): Bodrum FK 0W | Draws 0 | Eyüpspor 1W.
What form are Bodrum FK and Eyüpspor in?
Bodrum FK (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Eyüpspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bodrum FK's attack at 0.66x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Bodrum FK's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.09
34%
2.93
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Bodrum FK xG
Total xG
2.17
1.10
Eyüpspor xG
3.09
32%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
11%
8.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodrum FK vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bodrum FK and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Bodrum FK and 1.10 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodrum FK vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodrum FK come into this having played 19 games, going 4W 4D 11L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Bodrum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 1.74 PPG from 19 outings (9W 6D 4L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eyüpspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Bodrum FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bodrum FK's home form reads 3W 2D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 1.33 points per game from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eyüpspor's season.
The Goals Picture
Bodrum FK are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.68 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Eyüpspor in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodrum FK
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodrum FK and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Bodrum FK have gone 4W 4D 11L in their last 19 games (0.84 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 9W 6D 4L in their last 19 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodrum FK at home or Eyüpspor away?
Eyüpspor's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodrum FK at home: 1.22 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Bodrum FK or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodrum FK have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodrum FK and Eyüpspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bodrum FK
0
Draws
2
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Eyüpspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Bodrum FK have won 0, Eyüpspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bodrum FK and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Bodrum FK 0-1 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Bodrum FK and Eyüpspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodrum FK tend to start slowly — only 22% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodrum FK 33%, Eyüpspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Bodrum FK) and 56% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodrum FK home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodrum FK play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Bodrum FK's recent matches and 67% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodrum FK vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Bodrum FK's recent games and 56% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodrum FK and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Bodrum FK have had a goal before half-time in 22% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eyüpspor edge out Bodrum FK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Bodrum FK 0-1 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 1.08 xG and Eyüpspor 1.10 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bodrum FK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.66 / defence 0.90 against Eyüpspor attack 1.01 / defence 0.96, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 32% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Eyüpspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 32%, Eyüpspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodrum FK's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.