Beşiktaş 0-0 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 36%, yet in-form Samsunspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Tüpraş Stadyumu to face Beşiktaş in Süper Lig (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Saturday 18 January 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Beşiktaş's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Beşiktaş's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Samsunspor have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Samsunspor have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Samsunspor arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Beşiktaş, 0 for Samsunspor and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Aug 2024, ended Beşiktaş 2–0 Samsunspor — a Beşiktaş win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 55% versus Samsunspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 46% | Samsunspor 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Beşiktaş surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Samsunspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.35 xG and Samsunspor 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.014 / defence 1.092 | Samsunspor attack 0.997 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.179. Data: built from Beşiktaş's last 56 games and Samsunspor's last 56.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 36% | Draw 31% | Samsunspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.76 | Draw 3.24 | Samsunspor 3.04. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Samsunspor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though recent form (Beşiktaş's last 10 home games and Samsunspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beşiktaş 70% (last 10 home games) | Samsunspor 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 20 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 January 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 36% | Draw 31% | Samsunspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Beşiktaş 1.35 / Samsunspor 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.014 / def 1.092 | Samsunspor attack 0.997 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Samsunspor xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor FAQs
What time does Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Beşiktaş 0 - 0 Samsunspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 20) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 36% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Beşiktaş and Samsunspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Beşiktaş's attack at 1.01x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (1.00x) against Beşiktaş's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Beşiktaş's last 56 games and Samsunspor's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
36%
2.76
31%
3.24
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.64
1.28
Samsunspor xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
9%
11.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.28 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 24W 14D 18L from 56 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Samsunspor, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 21L across 56 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.41 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 16W 5D 7L from their last 28 home games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Samsunspor's away record stands at 7W 6D 15L across their last 28 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.32 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
Beşiktaş (Home) vs Samsunspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beşiktaş
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor Form FAQs
What form are Beşiktaş and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 24W 14D 18L in their last 56 games (1.54 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 22W 13D 21L in their last 56 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Samsunspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.89 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Beşiktaş and Samsunspor, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 0W 3D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
1
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Samsunspor?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Beşiktaş have won 2, Samsunspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Samsunspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: Samsunspor 2-1 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Samsunspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 54%, Samsunspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Beşiktaş) and 46% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Samsunspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beşiktaş and Samsunspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 50% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Beşiktaş and Samsunspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 46% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Samsunspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 68% of Samsunspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Beşiktaş's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, as Beşiktaş and Samsunspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.35 xG and Samsunspor 1.28 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Beşiktaş fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Samsunspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.01 / defence 1.09 against Samsunspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 36% | Draw 31% | Samsunspor 33%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 46%, Samsunspor 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Samsunspor's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.54 PPG, Samsunspor 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.