Beşiktaş 1-3 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 11 as Beşiktaş welcome Kasımpaşa to Tüpraş Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Beşiktaş — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Tüpraş Stadyumu this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Beşiktaş have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beşiktaş register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kasımpaşa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Beşiktaş, 3 for Kasımpaşa and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 51% versus Kasımpaşa 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 47% | Kasımpaşa 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.71 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.183 / defence 0.809 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.169 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.311. Data: 47 Beşiktaş games / 48 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 48% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 27%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Kasımpaşa 3.70. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 60% | Kasımpaşa 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 48% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Beşiktaş 1.71 / Kasımpaşa 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.183 / def 0.809 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.169 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Kasımpaşa xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Beşiktaş 1 - 3 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 48% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa?
Record (6 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 3W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.18) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.90
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.95
1.24
Kasımpaşa xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
5%
20.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.24 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 22W 10D 15L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 17W 13D 17L from 47 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.62 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 2.00 PPG from 23 outings (14W 4D 5L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 6D 8L from 23 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.51 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 64%.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 22W 10D 15L in their last 47 games (1.62 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 17W 13D 17L in their last 47 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.00 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Kasımpaşa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 3, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 48%, Kasımpaşa 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Beşiktaş) and 61% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Beşiktaş's games and 65% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 61% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Beşiktaş.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Beşiktaş 1-3 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.71 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kasımpaşa outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.18 / defence 0.81 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.17 / defence 1.01, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 48% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 27%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 47%, Kasımpaşa 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.62 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.