Beşiktaş 3-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (37%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Beşiktaş face Fatih Karagümrük.

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Full Analysis

Tüpraş Stadyumu plays host to Beşiktaş versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig (matchday 20). Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Current Form

Beşiktaş's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Beşiktaş at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Beşiktaş's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Beşiktaş's last 10 home games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 away games) — Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fatih Karagümrük in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record in our data favours Beşiktaş, who have won 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Fatih Karagümrük — Fatih Karagümrük have 0 wins, with 1 draw.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Aug 2023, ended Beşiktaş 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük — a Beşiktaş win.

The head-to-head data gives Beşiktaş an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading

Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 60% and Fatih Karagümrük 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 62% | Fatih Karagümrük 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Beşiktaş surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Fatih Karagümrük have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Fatih Karagümrük surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Beşiktaş recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 56% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.27 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.940 / defence 1.132 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.794 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.286. Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Data: built from Beşiktaş's last 55 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 55.

Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 37% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 32%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.68 | Draw 3.21 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beşiktaş 60% (last 10 home games) | Fatih Karagümrük 60% (last 10 away games).

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