Beşiktaş 2-1 Bodrum FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Bodrum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tüpraş Stadyumu plays host to Beşiktaş versus Bodrum FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 11 January 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş at Tüpraş Stadyumu this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Tüpraş Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Bodrum FK (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodrum FK away from home this season: 1W 1D 6L from 8 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Beşiktaş, 0.60 for Bodrum FK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bodrum FK half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 65% versus Bodrum FK 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Beşiktaş 41% | Bodrum FK 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.89 xG and Bodrum FK 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.021 / defence 1.063 | Bodrum FK attack 0.612 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.219. Data: 55 Beşiktaş games / 17 Bodrum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 62% | Draw 25% | Bodrum FK 13%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Bodrum FK 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Beşiktaş 70% | Bodrum FK 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Bodrum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jan 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 62% | Draw 25% | Bodrum FK 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG Beşiktaş 1.89 / Bodrum FK 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.021 / def 1.063 | Bodrum FK attack 0.612 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Bodrum FK xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Bodrum FK kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Bodrum FK kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 January 2025 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Bodrum FK?
Beşiktaş 2 - 1 Bodrum FK.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Bodrum FK being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Bodrum FK part of?
Beşiktaş vs Bodrum FK is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Bodrum FK?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 62% chance of winning, Bodrum FK a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Bodrum FK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Beşiktaş and Bodrum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Bodrum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Bodrum FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beşiktaş and Bodrum FK in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Bodrum FK (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Beşiktaş's attack at 1.02x the league average against Bodrum FK's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bodrum FK's attack (0.61x) against Beşiktaş's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
62%
1.62
25%
4.02
13%
7.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.69
0.79
Bodrum FK xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
7.46
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
15%
6.64
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
2%
49.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Bodrum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Bodrum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.79 for Bodrum FK, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Bodrum FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 7W 6D 4L from 17 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodrum FK, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 10L across 17 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Bodrum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bodrum FK heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 5W 1D 2L from 8 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Beşiktaş are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bodrum FK's away record stands at 1W 1D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Bodrum FK are on 0.76 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Bodrum FK in 29%.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Bodrum FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Bodrum FK in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 7W 6D 4L in their last 17 games (1.59 PPG), while Bodrum FK have gone 4W 3D 10L in their last 17 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Bodrum FK away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.00 PPG; Bodrum FK away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Bodrum FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bodrum FK in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
0
Draws
0
Bodrum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Bodrum FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Bodrum FK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Bodrum FK last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when Bodrum FK 0-4 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Bodrum FK?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Bodrum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 62%, Bodrum FK 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Beşiktaş) and 38% (Bodrum FK).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bodrum FK in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Bodrum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Bodrum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 25% of Bodrum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Bodrum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 38% of Bodrum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Bodrum FK tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Bodrum FK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Bodrum FK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Bodrum FK 2-1 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.89 xG and Bodrum FK 0.79 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against Bodrum FK attack 0.61 / defence 1.17, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 62% | Draw 25% | Bodrum FK 13%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 41%, Bodrum FK 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Bodrum FK's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.