Beşiktaş 2-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Alanyaspor travel to Tupras Stadium to take on Beşiktaş. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's home record at Tupras Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Alanyaspor — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 1W 7D 2L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Beşiktaş are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Beşiktaş trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 64% versus Alanyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 50% | Alanyaspor 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.35 xG and Alanyaspor 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.087 / defence 0.914 | Alanyaspor attack 0.848 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.299. Data: 56 Beşiktaş games / 56 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 41% | Draw 35% | Alanyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Alanyaspor 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 80% | Alanyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Tupras Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 41% | Draw 35% | Alanyaspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Beşiktaş 1.35 / Alanyaspor 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.087 / def 0.914 | Alanyaspor attack 0.848 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Alanyaspor xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Tupras Stadium.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Beşiktaş 2 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Tupras Stadium.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 41% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Record (8 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 4 | Alanyaspor 2W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Alanyaspor (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
41%
2.44
35%
2.85
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.36
1.01
Alanyaspor xG
2.44
41%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
6%
16.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.01 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 27W 17D 12L from 56 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 16W 19D 21L across 56 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alanyaspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 17W 4D 7L from 28 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 5W 11D 12L across 28 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.12 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 27W 17D 12L in their last 56 games (1.75 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 16W 19D 21L in their last 56 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Alanyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.96 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2022, when Beşiktaş won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
5
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Beşiktaş at 71%, Alanyaspor at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Beşiktaş) and 43% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Beşiktaş's games and 61% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 43% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tupras Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.35 xG and Alanyaspor 1.01 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against Alanyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 41% | Draw 35% | Alanyaspor 24%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 50%, Alanyaspor 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.