Başakşehir 1-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kasımpaşa make the trip to Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium to face Başakşehir in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Başakşehir's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Başakşehir have posted 7W 2D 1L at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Kasımpaşa have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.50 for Kasımpaşa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across 9 previous meetings, Başakşehir are the stronger side on paper — 8 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 4–0 with Başakşehir winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Başakşehir and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Başakşehir half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 56% versus Kasımpaşa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 61% | Kasımpaşa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.72 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.225 / defence 0.791 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.971 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.193. Başakşehir's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Başakşehir games / 36 Kasımpaşa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 56% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 20%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Kasımpaşa 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 40% | Kasımpaşa 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 56% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Başakşehir 1.72 / Kasımpaşa 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.225 / def 0.791 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.971 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Kasımpaşa xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Başakşehir 1 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 56% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa?
Record (9 meetings): Başakşehir 8W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.23x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (0.97x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
56%
1.77
24%
4.21
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.64
0.92
Kasımpaşa xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
4%
28.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.92 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 17W 9D 10L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 9W 12D 15L from 36 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kasımpaşa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.83 PPG from 18 outings (9W 6D 3L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 5D 9L from 18 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Başakşehir are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 0.97 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 17W 9D 10L in their last 36 games (1.67 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 12D 15L in their last 36 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.83 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Başakşehir won 4-0 on 8 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Başakşehir
2
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 8, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Başakşehir 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 56%, Kasımpaşa 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Başakşehir) and 61% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Başakşehir's games and 61% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Başakşehir's matches and 61% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.72 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.92 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.23 / defence 0.79 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.97 / defence 1.01, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 56% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 20%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 61%, Kasımpaşa 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.