Başakşehir 3-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Başakşehir (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Başakşehir face Hatayspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Hatayspor travel to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to take on Başakşehir. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 April 2023, 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Başakşehir have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Hatayspor have recorded 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Başakşehir are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Başakşehir's 30% rate and Hatayspor's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Başakşehir have won 2, Hatayspor 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Hatayspor in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 48% versus Hatayspor 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 46% | Hatayspor 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.13 xG and Hatayspor 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.902 / defence 0.879 | Hatayspor attack 0.559 / defence 1.406. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.395. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.406 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Başakşehir games / 67 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 71% | Draw 19% | Hatayspor 11%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.41 | Draw 5.26 | Hatayspor 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 30% | Hatayspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 71% | Draw 19% | Hatayspor 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 44% | xG Başakşehir 2.13 / Hatayspor 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.902 / def 0.879 | Hatayspor attack 0.559 / def 1.406 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Hatayspor xG
44%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Hatayspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Hatayspor kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Başakşehir 3 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Hatayspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 71% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Başakşehir and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Hatayspor?
Record (3 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 1 | Hatayspor 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Hatayspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 0.90x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 2.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 1-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
71%
1.41
19%
5.40
11%
9.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.81
0.69
Hatayspor xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.40
19%
Draw
9.33
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
12%
8.40
Win to Nil
36%
2.81
1%
78.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.69 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir come into this having played 67 games, going 33W 14D 20L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 1.13 PPG from 67 outings (21W 13D 33L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Başakşehir carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Başakşehir's home form reads 21W 3D 9L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.76 points per game from 33 outings (7W 4D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.12 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Current Season
Hatayspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 33W 14D 20L in their last 67 games (1.69 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 21W 13D 33L in their last 67 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Hatayspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.00 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when Başakşehir won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Başakşehir
1
Draws
0
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 7, Hatayspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Hatayspor 2-4 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Hatayspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 36%, Hatayspor 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Başakşehir) and 61% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Başakşehir have failed to score in 27% of games; Hatayspor in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 36% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Başakşehir's recent games and 61% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Hatayspor 3-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.13 xG and Hatayspor 0.69 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.90 / defence 0.88 against Hatayspor attack 0.56 / defence 1.41, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 71% | Draw 19% | Hatayspor 11%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 46%, Hatayspor 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hatayspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.