Başakşehir 4-1 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 50%, yet in-form Göztepe provide a compelling counter-argument — this Başakşehir vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Başakşehir and Göztepe meet at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Başakşehir's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Başakşehir at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Başakşehir are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Göztepe (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Göztepe have posted 1W 2D 3L from their last 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Göztepe are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Başakşehir's last 10 home games and Göztepe's last 6 away games) — Başakşehir have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Göztepe in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Göztepe edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Jan 2022, ended Başakşehir 1–2 Göztepe — a Göztepe win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Başakşehir half-time and goal-timing data (last 12 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Göztepe half-time and goal-timing data (last 12 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 58% versus Göztepe 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 42% | Göztepe 58%). Note also that Göztepe surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Başakşehir recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 80% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.94 xG and Göztepe 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.105 / defence 0.922 | Göztepe attack 1.115 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.294. Data: built from Başakşehir's last 50 games and Göztepe's last 12.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 50% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 25%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.99 | Draw 4.06 | Göztepe 3.99. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.94 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Göztepe (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Başakşehir's last 10 home games and Göztepe's last 6 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Başakşehir 60% (last 10 home games) | Göztepe 67% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 14 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 50% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Başakşehir 1.94 / Göztepe 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.105 / def 0.922 | Göztepe attack 1.115 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Göztepe xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Başakşehir vs Göztepe FAQs
What time does Başakşehir vs Göztepe kick off?
Başakşehir vs Göztepe kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Başakşehir 4 - 1 Göztepe.
Where is Başakşehir vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Göztepe part of?
Başakşehir vs Göztepe is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 14) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 50% chance of winning, Göztepe a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Başakşehir and Göztepe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Başakşehir vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.10) and Göztepe's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Göztepe's attack (1.11x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Başakşehir's last 50 games and Göztepe's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
50%
1.99
25%
4.06
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.27
1.33
Göztepe xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
14%
6.93
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
4%
27.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Başakşehir vs Göztepe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.33 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 4W 4D 4L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Göztepe's form line: 6W 3D 3L from 12 games, 1.75 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Göztepe are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Başakşehir.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.80 PPG from their last 5 home games (2W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Göztepe have gone 1W 1D 3L from their last 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Göztepe's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.92 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
Başakşehir (Home) vs Göztepe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Başakşehir
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Başakşehir vs Göztepe Form FAQs
What form are Başakşehir and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Göztepe away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.80 PPG; Göztepe away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Göztepe in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Başakşehir have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Başakşehir won Başakşehir 4-1 Göztepe on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Göztepe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Başakşehir
0
Draws
4
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Başakşehir vs Göztepe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Göztepe?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Başakşehir have won 3, Göztepe have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Göztepe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Göztepe 1-2 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Göztepe?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Başakşehir, 80% for Göztepe — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Başakşehir) and 60% (Göztepe).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Başakşehir vs Göztepe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Başakşehir and Göztepe matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Başakşehir's games and 80% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Başakşehir and Göztepe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Başakşehir's recent games and 60% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Göztepe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 80% of Göztepe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Göztepe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Göztepe 4-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.94 xG and Göztepe 1.33 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.10 / defence 0.92 against Göztepe attack 1.11 / defence 1.15, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 50% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 25%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 42%, Göztepe 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Göztepe's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Başakşehir winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.