Başakşehir 0-0 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Başakşehir face Adana Demirspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Başakşehir welcome Adana Demirspor to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 6 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Başakşehir have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Başakşehir at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Adana Demirspor — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Adana Demirspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Başakşehir) versus 1.30 (Adana Demirspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Başakşehir have won 3, Adana Demirspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Jun 2023, ended Başakşehir 3–2 Adana Demirspor — a Başakşehir win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Adana Demirspor trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 38% versus Adana Demirspor 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 40% | Adana Demirspor 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.02 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.180 / defence 0.962 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.999 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.260. Data: built from Başakşehir's last 53 games and Adana Demirspor's last 53.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 55% | Draw 24% | Adana Demirspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.83 | Draw 4.19 | Adana Demirspor 4.68. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.02 / 1.21) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Başakşehir's last 10 home games and Adana Demirspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Başakşehir 50% (last 10 home games) | Adana Demirspor 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 19 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 6 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 55% | Draw 24% | Adana Demirspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Başakşehir 2.02 / Adana Demirspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.180 / def 0.962 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.999 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Adana Demirspor xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor FAQs
What time does Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 6 January 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Başakşehir 0 - 0 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 19) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 55% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.18x the league average against Adana Demirspor's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Başakşehir's last 53 games and Adana Demirspor's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.19
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.23
1.21
Adana Demirspor xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
13%
7.50
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
3%
35.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.21 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 23W 12D 18L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Adana Demirspor's form line: 27W 15D 11L from 53 games, 1.81 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.53 PPG, Adana Demirspor on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.96 PPG from their last 26 home games (16W 3D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 8W 10D 8L from their last 26 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 2.02 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 64%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Başakşehir (Home) vs Adana Demirspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Başakşehir
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor Form FAQs
What form are Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 23W 12D 18L in their last 53 games (1.53 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 27W 15D 11L in their last 53 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.96 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 25 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 May 2024, when Başakşehir won Adana Demirspor 2-6 Başakşehir.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Başakşehir
1
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Başakşehir have won 5, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 May 2025: Başakşehir 2-3 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 35%, Adana Demirspor 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Başakşehir) and 58% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 35% of Başakşehir's games and 77% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Başakşehir's recent games and 58% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 77% of Adana Demirspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Başakşehir's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, as Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.02 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.21 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Başakşehir fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Adana Demirspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.18 / defence 0.96 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.11, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 55% | Draw 24% | Adana Demirspor 21%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 40%, Adana Demirspor 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.53 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.