Antalyaspor 2-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 16 as Antalyaspor welcome Trabzonspor to Antalya Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Antalyaspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 3L across 8 games at Antalya Stadyumu this term (1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 0L across 8 road games this term (2.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Trabzonspor — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 53% versus Trabzonspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 53% | Trabzonspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.02 xG and Trabzonspor 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.032 / defence 1.155 | Trabzonspor attack 1.139 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.118. Data: 15 Antalyaspor games / 15 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 25% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 46%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Trabzonspor 2.17. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 62% | Trabzonspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Antalya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 25% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Antalyaspor 1.02 / Trabzonspor 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.032 / def 1.155 | Trabzonspor attack 1.139 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Trabzonspor xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Antalya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Antalyaspor 2 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Antalya Stadyumu.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 25% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (1.03) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
25%
3.99
29%
3.48
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.49
1.47
Trabzonspor xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
6%
17.35
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.47 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 5W 3D 7L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 12W 3D 0L from 15 games, 2.60 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 1.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antalyaspor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 7W 1D 0L from 8 away games — 2.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 2.07 scored and 0.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 60%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 12W 3D 0L in their last 15 (2.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.62 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 2.75 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Jan 2025, when Trabzonspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
3
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Antalyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 62%, Trabzonspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Antalyaspor) and 50% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Antalyaspor's games and 50% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Antalyaspor's matches and 50% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antalyaspor defy the odds to beat Trabzonspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Trabzonspor 2-1 at Antalya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.02 xG and Trabzonspor 1.47 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.03 / defence 1.16 against Trabzonspor attack 1.14 / defence 0.84, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 25% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 46%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Antalyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 53%, Trabzonspor 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Antalyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.