Antalyaspor 0-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 38 as Antalyaspor welcome Trabzonspor to Corendon Airlines Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Antalyaspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Antalyaspor's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Corendon Airlines Park this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Trabzonspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Antalyaspor at 1.40 PPG versus Trabzonspor's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Antalyaspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Trabzonspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Antalyaspor have won 2, Trabzonspor 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2025, ended 0–5 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 58% versus Trabzonspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 51% | Trabzonspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.27 xG and Trabzonspor 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.865 / defence 0.811 | Trabzonspor attack 0.864 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.288. Data: 73 Antalyaspor games / 73 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 45% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Trabzonspor 3.85. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Antalyaspor 60% | Trabzonspor 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Friday 30 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 45% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Antalyaspor 1.27 / Trabzonspor 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.865 / def 0.811 | Trabzonspor attack 0.864 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Trabzonspor xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 30 May 2025 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Antalyaspor 0 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 45% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (7 meetings): Antalyaspor 2W | Draws 2 | Trabzonspor 3W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (0.86) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.41
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.18
0.90
Trabzonspor xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
41%
2.47
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.90 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 24W 21D 28L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 33W 16D 24L from 73 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.27 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.83 PPG from 36 outings (18W 12D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 11W 10D 15L from 36 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.70 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 24W 21D 28L in their last 73 games (1.27 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 33W 16D 24L in their last 73 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.83 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Jan 2025, when Trabzonspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
3
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Antalyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 58%, Trabzonspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Antalyaspor) and 50% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Antalyaspor have failed to score in 28% of games; Trabzonspor in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Antalyaspor's games and 58% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 50% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Antalyaspor 0-2 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.27 xG and Trabzonspor 0.90 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 0.81 against Trabzonspor attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 45% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 26%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 51%, Trabzonspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.27 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.