Antalyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 20 as Antalyaspor welcome Trabzonspor to Corendon Airlines Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Antalyaspor — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Corendon Airlines Park this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Corendon Airlines Park.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Antalyaspor at 1.90 PPG versus Trabzonspor's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Antalyaspor have won 2, Trabzonspor 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 48% versus Trabzonspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 44% | Trabzonspor 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.03 xG and Trabzonspor 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.741 / defence 0.722 | Trabzonspor attack 1.257 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.257. Antalyaspor's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — the away xG of 1.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Antalyaspor's defence rating of 0.722 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Antalyaspor games / 54 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 30% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 36%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Trabzonspor 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 40% | Trabzonspor 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 30% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Antalyaspor 1.03 / Trabzonspor 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.741 / def 0.722 | Trabzonspor attack 1.257 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Trabzonspor xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Antalyaspor 1 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 30% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (5 meetings): Antalyaspor 2W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (0.74) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
30%
3.30
34%
2.97
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.17
1.14
Trabzonspor xG
3.30
30%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
10%
10.33
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.14 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 18W 15D 21L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 27W 9D 18L from 54 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.28 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.63 PPG from 27 outings (12W 8D 7L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 9W 4D 14L from 27 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.74 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 18W 15D 21L in their last 54 games (1.28 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 27W 9D 18L in their last 54 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.63 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Jan 2025, when Trabzonspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
3
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Antalyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 52%, Trabzonspor 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Antalyaspor and 70% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Antalyaspor have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Antalyaspor's games and 70% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Antalyaspor's matches and 70% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor finished level at 1-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.03 xG and Trabzonspor 1.14 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.74 / defence 0.72 against Trabzonspor attack 1.26 / defence 0.91, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 30% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 36%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 44%, Trabzonspor 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.28 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.