Antalyaspor 2-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Corendon Airlines Park plays host to Antalyaspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Rizespor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Antalyaspor, 1.30 for Rizespor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rizespor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Antalyaspor 1W, Rizespor 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Rizespor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rizespor — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 59% versus Rizespor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 49% | Rizespor 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.56 xG and Rizespor 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.841 / defence 1.033 | Rizespor attack 1.099 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.172. Data: 63 Antalyaspor games / 63 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 42% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 32%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Rizespor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 60% | Rizespor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 42% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Antalyaspor 1.56 / Rizespor 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.841 / def 1.033 | Rizespor attack 1.099 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Rizespor xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Antalyaspor 2 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Rizespor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 42% chance of winning, Rizespor a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Antalyaspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Rizespor?
Record (5 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Rizespor 3W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Rizespor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Rizespor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (0.84) and Rizespor's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (1.10x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
42%
2.36
25%
3.93
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.90
1.33
Rizespor xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
7%
14.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.33 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 20W 19D 24L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rizespor's form line: 24W 11D 28L from 63 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.32 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.71 PPG from 31 outings (14W 11D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rizespor have gone 8W 3D 20L from 31 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.29 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 20W 19D 24L in their last 63 games (1.25 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 24W 11D 28L in their last 63 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Rizespor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.71 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Rizespor go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won 3-0 on 14 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
1
Draws
5
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Rizespor have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Rizespor 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Rizespor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 58%, Rizespor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Antalyaspor) and 68% (Rizespor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games; Rizespor in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 52% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Antalyaspor's matches and 68% of Rizespor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Rizespor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Rizespor 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.56 xG and Rizespor 1.33 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.03 against Rizespor attack 1.10 / defence 1.13, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 42% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 32%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 49%, Rizespor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Rizespor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.25 PPG, Rizespor 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.