Antalyaspor 1-0 Kocaelispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kocaelispor make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Antalyaspor's home record at Corendon Airlines Park: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Kocaelispor have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Kocaelispor's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Antalyaspor against 0.70 for Kocaelispor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Antalyaspor 0W, Kocaelispor 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Kocaelispor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Kocaelispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 52% versus Kocaelispor 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Antalyaspor 52% | Kocaelispor 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.31 xG and Kocaelispor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.868 / defence 1.223 | Kocaelispor attack 0.685 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.128. Data: 69 Antalyaspor games / 33 Kocaelispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 42% | Draw 35% | Kocaelispor 24%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Kocaelispor 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 70% | Kocaelispor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 42% | Draw 35% | Kocaelispor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Antalyaspor 1.31 / Kocaelispor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.868 / def 1.223 | Kocaelispor attack 0.685 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Kocaelispor xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Antalyaspor 1 - 0 Kocaelispor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 42% chance of winning, Kocaelispor a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Antalyaspor and Kocaelispor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Kocaelispor?
Record (1 meetings): Antalyaspor 0W | Draws 0 | Kocaelispor 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Kocaelispor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Kocaelispor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 0.87x the league average against Kocaelispor's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kocaelispor's attack (0.69x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 69/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
42%
2.40
35%
2.89
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.25
0.94
Kocaelispor xG
2.40
42%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
6%
15.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Kocaelispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.94 for Kocaelispor, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 7W 8D 18L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Kocaelispor's form line: 9W 10D 14L from 33 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.12 for Kocaelispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.00 PPG from 16 outings (4W 4D 8L).
On the road, Kocaelispor have gone 3W 5D 8L from 16 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Kocaelispor are on 0.79 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Kocaelispor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Kocaelispor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 7W 8D 18L in their last 33 games (0.88 PPG), while Kocaelispor have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Kocaelispor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.00 PPG; Kocaelispor away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Kocaelispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Kocaelispor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Antalyaspor
0
Draws
1
Kocaelispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Kocaelispor?
From 2 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 1, Kocaelispor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Kocaelispor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Antalyaspor 1-0 Kocaelispor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kocaelispor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 75%, Kocaelispor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Antalyaspor) and 31% (Kocaelispor).
On the defensive side: Kocaelispor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Kocaelispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Kocaelispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Antalyaspor's games and 44% of Kocaelispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 31% of Kocaelispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Kocaelispor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Kocaelispor in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Kocaelispor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Kocaelispor 1-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.31 xG and Kocaelispor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kocaelispor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.22 against Kocaelispor attack 0.69 / defence 0.98, drawn from 69/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 42% | Draw 35% | Kocaelispor 24%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 52%, Kocaelispor 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Kocaelispor's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 0.88 PPG, Kocaelispor 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.