Antalyaspor 0-0 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gaziantep FK make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Antalyaspor (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Gaziantep FK have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gaziantep FK away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.30 for Gaziantep FK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Antalyaspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Gaziantep FK in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Antalyaspor lead 2W to 4W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Gaziantep FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 58% versus Gaziantep FK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 51% | Gaziantep FK 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.68 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.967 / defence 0.897 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.890 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.249. Data: 71 Antalyaspor games / 71 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 53% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 22%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Gaziantep FK 4.55. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 70% | Gaziantep FK 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 53% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Antalyaspor 1.68 / Gaziantep FK 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.967 / def 0.897 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.890 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Gaziantep FK xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Antalyaspor 0 - 0 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 53% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (7 meetings): Antalyaspor 2W | Draws 1 | Gaziantep FK 4W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 0.97x the league average against Gaziantep FK's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (0.89x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.12
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.67
1.00
Gaziantep FK xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
4%
23.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.00 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 71 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 24W 20D 27L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Gaziantep FK's form line: 24W 14D 33L from 71 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.21 for Gaziantep FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.86 PPG from 35 outings (18W 11D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 8W 5D 22L from 35 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.28 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 24W 20D 27L in their last 71 games (1.30 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 24W 14D 33L in their last 71 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.86 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Gaziantep FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gaziantep FK won 5-2 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
6
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Gaziantep FK have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Antalyaspor 1-4 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Gaziantep FK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 60%, Gaziantep FK 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Antalyaspor) and 69% (Gaziantep FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 26% of games; Gaziantep FK in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Gaziantep FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Antalyaspor's games and 63% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 49% of Antalyaspor's matches and 69% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Antalyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK finished level at 0-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.68 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.00 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Gaziantep FK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.97 / defence 0.90 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.89 / defence 1.09, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 53% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 22%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 51%, Gaziantep FK 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.30 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.