Antalyaspor 1-3 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beşiktaş make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antalyaspor have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Beşiktaş away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Beşiktaş are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Antalyaspor lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 54% versus Beşiktaş 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 52% | Beşiktaş 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.14 xG and Beşiktaş 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.052 / defence 0.995 | Beşiktaş attack 1.094 / defence 0.635. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.363. Beşiktaş's defence strength of 0.635 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 68 Antalyaspor games / 69 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 29% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 45%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Beşiktaş 2.22. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 70% | Beşiktaş 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 29% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Antalyaspor 1.14 / Beşiktaş 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.052 / def 0.995 | Beşiktaş attack 1.094 / def 0.635 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Beşiktaş xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Antalyaspor 1 - 3 Beşiktaş.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 29% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (3 meetings): Antalyaspor 0W | Draws 2 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (0.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.09x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 68/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
29%
3.44
26%
3.88
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.62
1.49
Beşiktaş xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
7%
15.20
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.49 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antalyaspor come into this having played 68 games, going 26W 17D 25L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.78 PPG from 68 outings (33W 22D 13L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.78 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Antalyaspor's home form reads 17W 8D 9L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.44 points per game from 34 outings (12W 13D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.66 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 60%.
Last 68 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 26W 17D 25L in their last 68 games (1.40 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 33W 22D 13L in their last 68 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.74 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Beşiktaş have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
3
Draws
5
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Beşiktaş 4-2 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 65%, Beşiktaş 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Antalyaspor) and 44% (Beşiktaş).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Antalyaspor's games and 62% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 44% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Antalyaspor 1-3 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.14 xG and Beşiktaş 1.49 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Beşiktaş outscored their 1.49 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Beşiktaş attack 1.09 / defence 0.64, drawn from 68/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 29% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 45%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 52%, Beşiktaş 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.40 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.