Antalyaspor 0-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 35 as Antalyaspor welcome Başakşehir to Corendon Airlines Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 5W 1D 4L at Corendon Airlines Park — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Başakşehir — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Başakşehir's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 1.20 (Başakşehir). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Antalyaspor, 2 for Başakşehir and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2022, ended 0–2 with Başakşehir winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 56% versus Başakşehir 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 51% | Başakşehir 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.46 xG and Başakşehir 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.058 / defence 1.071 | Başakşehir attack 0.914 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.412. Data: 70 Antalyaspor games / 70 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 36%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Başakşehir 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 70% | Başakşehir 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Antalyaspor 1.46 / Başakşehir 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.058 / def 1.071 | Başakşehir attack 0.914 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Başakşehir xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Antalyaspor 0 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 39% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Antalyaspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Başakşehir?
Record (3 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 2W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
39%
2.55
25%
3.99
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.84
1.38
Başakşehir xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
10%
10.17
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.38 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 26W 18D 26L from 70 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 34W 15D 21L across 70 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.37 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 17W 8D 10L from 35 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 12W 11D 12L across 35 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.44 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Başakşehir
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 26W 18D 26L in their last 70 games (1.37 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 34W 15D 21L in their last 70 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.69 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Başakşehir won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
3
Draws
5
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Başakşehir have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Başakşehir 0-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 66%, Başakşehir 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Antalyaspor) and 43% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Antalyaspor's games and 57% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 43% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Antalyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 35, as Antalyaspor and Başakşehir drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.46 xG and Başakşehir 1.38 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Başakşehir landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.06 / defence 1.07 against Başakşehir attack 0.91 / defence 0.84, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 36%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 51%, Başakşehir 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Başakşehir's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.37 PPG, Başakşehir 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.