Ankaragücü 3-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Eryaman Stadyumu plays host to Ankaragücü versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Ankaragücü (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankaragücü have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Kasımpaşa have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Ankaragücü, 1.10 for Kasımpaşa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Ankaragücü 0W, Kasımpaşa 1W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 2–3 with Kasımpaşa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ankaragücü — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ankaragücü 62% and Kasımpaşa 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 49% | Kasımpaşa 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.08 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.683 / defence 0.876 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.106 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.281. Ankaragücü's attack strength of 0.683 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Ankaragücü games / 55 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 30% | Draw 32% | Kasımpaşa 38%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Kasımpaşa 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ankaragücü 40% | Kasımpaşa 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 30% | Draw 32% | Kasımpaşa 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Ankaragücü 1.08 / Kasımpaşa 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.683 / def 0.876 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.106 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Kasımpaşa xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa?
Ankaragücü 3 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 30% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa?
Record (3 meetings): Ankaragücü 0W | Draws 2 | Kasımpaşa 1W.
What form are Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa in?
Ankaragücü (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ankaragücü's attack rating (0.68) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (1.11x) against Ankaragücü's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
30%
3.32
32%
3.15
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
2.32
1.24
Kasımpaşa xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
9%
11.48
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 1.24 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ankaragücü's recent record stands at 16W 15D 24L from 55 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 24L across 55 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Ankaragücü against 1.25 for Kasımpaşa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ankaragücü have managed 8W 8D 11L from 27 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 8W 7D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.40 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 16W 15D 24L in their last 55 games (1.15 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 19W 12D 24L in their last 55 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Ankaragücü's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.19 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ankaragücü have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ankaragücü
2
Draws
1
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa?
From 4 meetings on record, Ankaragücü have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Ankaragücü 3-1 Kasımpaşa.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ankaragücü 59%, Kasımpaşa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Ankaragücü) and 56% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Ankaragücü have failed to score in 30% of games; Kasımpaşa in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ankaragücü play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Ankaragücü's recent matches and 44% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Ankaragücü's recent games and 56% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Ankaragücü have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ankaragücü cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ankaragücü beat Kasımpaşa 3-1 at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.08 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ankaragücü beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.68 / defence 0.88 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.11 / defence 1.05, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 30% | Draw 32% | Kasımpaşa 38%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ankaragücü win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 49%, Kasımpaşa 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ankaragücü 1.15 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ankaragücü win broke the near-deadlock. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.