Ankaragücü 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ankaragücü at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ankaragücü face Fatih Karagümrük.

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Analysis & Preview

Fatih Karagümrük travel to Eryaman Stadyumu to take on Ankaragücü in Süper Lig (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 24 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Ankaragücü — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Ankaragücü's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Fatih Karagümrük stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ankaragücü at 1.20 PPG versus Fatih Karagümrük's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Ankaragücü have won 0, Fatih Karagümrük 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Ankaragücü 1–1 Fatih Karagümrük — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Ankaragücü trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ankaragücü 63% and Fatih Karagümrük 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 49% | Fatih Karagümrük 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ankaragücü surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Fatih Karagümrük have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.22 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.794 / defence 0.896 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.743 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.236. Ankaragücü's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.22. Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Ankaragücü's last 57 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 57.

Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 43% | Draw 35% | Fatih Karagümrük 22%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 2.34 | Draw 2.87 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ankaragücü are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ankaragücü offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Ankaragücü's last 10 home games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ankaragücü 40% (last 10 home games) | Fatih Karagümrük 50% (last 10 away games).

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