Amed vs Alanyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Amed at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amed vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Alanyaspor travel to Diyarbakir Stadium to take on Amed. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 December 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Amed — All Games: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor's away record: 0W 6D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Amed are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Amed in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amed 33% versus Alanyaspor 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amed 67% | Alanyaspor 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 1.68 xG and Alanyaspor 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.122 / defence 0.962 | Alanyaspor attack 0.904 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Data: 3 Amed games / 37 Alanyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Amed 52% | Draw 24% | Alanyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Amed 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Alanyaspor 4.17. Amed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amed are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amed 33% | Alanyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 52% | Draw 24% | Alanyaspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Amed 1.68 / Alanyaspor 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.122 / def 0.962 | Alanyaspor attack 0.904 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Amed (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Amed xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Alanyaspor xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Amed vs Alanyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
Where is Amed vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Alanyaspor part of?
Amed vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 52% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Amed and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Alanyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Alanyaspor in?
Amed (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W. Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Amed's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Amed's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.12
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Amed xG
Total xG
2.73
1.06
Alanyaspor xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
4%
22.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Amed and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Amed and 1.06 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amed's recent record stands at 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 1L across 3 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Amed by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alanyaspor heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Amed are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Early Season
Alanyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Amed or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amed have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amed 33%, Alanyaspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Amed) and 33% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Amed keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 33%; Amed have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Amed's recent matches and 67% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amed vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Amed's recent games and 33% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amed and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.