Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 42%, yet in-form Samsunspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 15 as Alanyaspor welcome Samsunspor to Alanya Oba Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 December 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Alanya Oba Stadium, Alanyaspor have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Samsunspor — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Samsunspor are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Samsunspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Alanyaspor, 1 for Samsunspor and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with Samsunspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alanyaspor 62% and Samsunspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 46% | Samsunspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.38 xG and Samsunspor 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.025 / defence 0.871 | Samsunspor attack 1.104 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.217. Data: 37 Alanyaspor games / 37 Samsunspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 42% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Samsunspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Samsunspor (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Samsunspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 42% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Alanyaspor 1.38 / Samsunspor 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.025 / def 0.871 | Samsunspor attack 1.104 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Samsunspor xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 13 December 2026 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 42% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Alanyaspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Samsunspor?
Record (6 meetings): Alanyaspor 2W | Draws 3 | Samsunspor 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Samsunspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.02x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
42%
2.40
26%
3.78
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.55
1.17
Samsunspor xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
8%
12.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.17 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 37 games, going 8W 17D 12L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.49 PPG from 37 outings (14W 13D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.11 PPG, Samsunspor on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 7W 5D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 1.44 points per game from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.38 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 8W 17D 12L in their last 37 games (1.11 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 14W 13D 10L in their last 37 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.44 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 2, Samsunspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-3 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Samsunspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 44%, Samsunspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Alanyaspor) and 56% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Alanyaspor's games and 67% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 56% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.